TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12378207
Played Aug 8Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012811611––
Milan Fisera
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeMilan Fisera to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Milan Fisera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Milan Fisera at 72.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 3–7 Milan Fisera Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Fisera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Fisera
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1466 vs Fisera 1478
Fisera
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Fisera 20%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Fisera 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Fisera +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Fisera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fisera form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 3.00 / Fisera 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Fisera)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12378207
Stefek3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 134
Fisera1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 42 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayFisera7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFisera leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%3 of 6
AwayFisera100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek6Fisera4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek5Fisera5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek2Fisera8n = 10Fisera took 8 of 10
S4Stefek3Fisera5n = 8Fisera took 5 of 8
S5Stefek1Fisera2n = 3Fisera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekFiseraS − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.839.6−5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekFiseraBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1126 vs 173 / 37148.2%46.6%543 / 1126 vs 173 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiseraStefek 3.00/Fisera 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Fisera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fisera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 31 · 14:30M. Stefek—8550M. Fisera—1111113
LMay 30 · 19:30M. Stefek—1113771M. Fisera—51511113
WMay 29 · 20:59M. Stefek—1111113M. Fisera—5880
LMay 29 · 19:30M. Stefek—115961M. Fisera—91111113
WMay 2 · 16:00M. Stefek—111464113M. Fisera—912111172
LApr 27 · 18:30M. Stefek—11821262M. Fisera—8111110113
LApr 21 · 12:00M. Stefek—411571M. Fisera—11811113
LApr 16 · 20:00M. Stefek—104111192M. Fisera—121118113
LApr 4 · 16:59M. Stefek—711741M. Fisera—11911113
WApr 4 · 14:00M. Stefek—1111553M. Fisera—891131
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
M. Fisera10
WSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113WSep 2 · 19:00V. Dolezal2.63311971M. Fisera1.4411711113WSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WAug 10 · 21:00M. Fisera1.471111113R. Bartunek2.509560LAug 10 · 20:00J. Didi2.201110118113M. Fisera1.6151271182LAug 10 · 19:00M. Stefek3.25111658113M. Fisera1.33414111162WAug 10 · 18:30M. Fisera1.731111113R. Bartunek2.008370LAug 8 · 21:30T. Regner1.52111111113M. Fisera2.35135251WAug 8 · 19:00J. Didi2.10119461M. Fisera1.6761111113
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