TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390883
Played Aug 10Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141614511811116
Milan Fisera
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Fisera to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Milan Fisera below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Milan Fisera at 74.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 3–7 Milan Fisera Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Fisera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Fisera
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1375 vs Fisera 1498
Fisera
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Fisera 60%
Fisera
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 20% vs Fisera 40%
Fisera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Fisera +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Fisera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fisera form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 3.25 / Fisera 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Fisera)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390883
Stefek3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 174 of 419
Down 0–1, comes back21% 47 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 136
Fisera1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 44 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayFisera7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFisera leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%3 of 6
AwayFisera100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek6Fisera4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek5Fisera5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek2Fisera8n = 10Fisera took 8 of 10
S4Stefek3Fisera5n = 8Fisera took 5 of 8
S5Stefek1Fisera2n = 3Fisera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekFiseraS − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.839.6−5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekFiseraBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 1132 vs 171 / 36848.1%46.5%544 / 1132 vs 171 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiseraStefek 3.25/Fisera 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Fisera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 31 · 14:30M. Stefek—8550M. Fisera—1111113
LMay 30 · 19:30M. Stefek—1113771M. Fisera—51511113
WMay 29 · 20:59M. Stefek—1111113M. Fisera—5880
LMay 29 · 19:30M. Stefek—115961M. Fisera—91111113
WMay 2 · 16:00M. Stefek—111464113M. Fisera—912111172
LApr 27 · 18:30M. Stefek—11821262M. Fisera—8111110113
LApr 21 · 12:00M. Stefek—411571M. Fisera—11811113
LApr 16 · 20:00M. Stefek—104111192M. Fisera—121118113
LApr 4 · 16:59M. Stefek—711741M. Fisera—11911113
WApr 4 · 14:00M. Stefek—1111553M. Fisera—891131
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
M. Fisera10
WSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113WSep 2 · 19:00V. Dolezal2.63311971M. Fisera1.4411711113WSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WAug 10 · 21:00M. Fisera1.471111113R. Bartunek2.509560LAug 10 · 20:00J. Didi2.201110118113M. Fisera1.6151271182WAug 10 · 18:30M. Fisera1.731111113R. Bartunek2.008370LAug 8 · 21:30T. Regner1.52111111113M. Fisera2.35135251WAug 8 · 20:00M. Stefek3.001110861M. Fisera1.3691211113WAug 8 · 19:00J. Didi2.10119461M. Fisera1.6761111113
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