TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091779
Played Sep 8Finished
Lubor Sulava
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611411––––
Martin Novak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:18 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeLubor Sulava to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLubor Sulava above · Martin Novak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 54 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Lubor Sulava at 64.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lubor Sulava 2–2 Martin Novak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulava 1476 vs Novak 1450
Sulava
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulava 60% vs Novak 20%
Sulava
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulava 50% vs Novak 20%
Sulava
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulava +3 · Novak -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulava 2.00 / Novak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novak)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091779
Sulava2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 62 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Novak1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSulava2wins
AwayNovak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulava66.7%2 of 3
AwayNovakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulava3Novak1n = 4Sulava took 3 of 4
S2Sulava1Novak3n = 4Novak took 3 of 4
S3Sulava3Novak1n = 4Sulava took 3 of 4
S4Sulava2Novak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSulavaNovakS − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.241.0+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulavaNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 971 vs 34 / 5649.6%60.7%482 / 971 vs 34 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakSulava 2.00/Novak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava—11811113M. Novak—511961
WSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava—14616113M. Novak—12111471
LJun 2 · 03:30L. Sulava—11119762M. Novak—681111113
LJun 1 · 23:30L. Sulava—7111181M. Novak—11137113
L. Sulava10
WSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961WSep 7 · 02:00P. Bruzek1.9198111252L. Sulava1.801111610113WSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113LSep 6 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.441211113L. Sulava2.6310580LSep 6 · 13:30M. Barta1.75911911113L. Sulava1.9511711952WSep 6 · 12:30M. Barta1.9177111172L. Sulava1.80111165113WSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172LSep 6 · 10:30J. Briska1.73971311113L. Sulava2.00111111342LAug 31 · 17:30L. Sulava1.73411111162M. Barta2.00118813113
M. Novak10
LSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961LSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113LSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:30R. Hasmanda1.8311811113M. Novak1.83411661WSep 6 · 22:30M. Novak1.571111113P. Bruzek2.256630WAug 18 · 01:30M. Novak1.5711711113O. Vitrovyj2.25211591LAug 18 · 24:30J. Didi1.57111188113M. Novak2.2597111182LAug 17 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.441111113M. Novak2.635560LAug 17 · 22:30M. Novak1.806940T. Regner1.911111113LJul 23 · 02:59O. Kucirek1.91512911113M. Novak1.80111011662
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