TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104091
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911311––––
Adam Svoboda
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 48 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 10–9 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1400 vs Svoboda 1573
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Svoboda 100%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +3 · Svoboda +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.38 / Svoboda 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104091
Stefek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 191 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 243
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Svoboda1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 60 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwaySvoboda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%3 of 6
AwaySvoboda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek6Svoboda4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Stefek4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S4Stefek2Svoboda5n = 7Svoboda took 5 of 7
S5Stefek1Svoboda3n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSvobodaStefek − SvobodaBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.6−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1206 vs 151 / 28947.8%52.3%576 / 1206 vs 151 / 289Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaStefek 2.38/Svoboda 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek—3930A. Svoboda—1111113
LSep 6 · 17:00M. Stefek—59100A. Svoboda—1111123
LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek—119771A. Svoboda—41111113
WSep 4 · 22:30M. Stefek—111212113A. Svoboda—9101491
LSep 4 · 21:29M. Stefek—117741A. Svoboda—91111113
LSep 4 · 19:00M. Stefek—85161152A. Svoboda—1111149113
WAug 24 · 12:00M. Stefek—111149133A. Svoboda—681111112
LAug 23 · 11:30M. Stefek—114128102A. Svoboda—5111011123
LAug 23 · 08:00M. Stefek—101111882A. Svoboda—124711113
WAug 22 · 15:00M. Stefek—1111113A. Svoboda—8850
M. Stefek10
WSep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek1.809111112113L. Sulava1.9111691492WSep 9 · 17:28J. Didi1.6161141192M. Stefek2.20118117113WSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113LSep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83511561J. Didi1.8311611113WSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113WSep 9 · 09:04M. Stefek1.73613311123J. Didi2.001111116102WSep 9 · 08:00J. Didi1.619911101M. Stefek2.2011118123LSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:30M. Stefek1.83811101172J. Pleskot1.83119129113LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113
A. Svoboda10
WSep 10 · 07:00L. Sulava3.70612111162A. Svoboda1.19111477113WSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570WSep 9 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.441111123R. Hasmanda2.6396100WSep 9 · 01:30L. Sulava3.403780A. Svoboda1.301111113WSep 9 · 24:00A. Svoboda1.401111113M. Novak2.757730LSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 21:28O. Fejtek1.61411771A. Svoboda2.2011611113WSep 8 · 20:30T. Regner2.389650A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 8 · 19:30A. Svoboda1.531111113M. Fisera2.389640LSep 8 · 18:30O. Fejtek1.831111113A. Svoboda1.839980
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