TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13101929
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115117––––
Vaclav Kosar
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 1–2 Vaclav Kosar Adam Svoboda has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kosar beat Svoboda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1549 vs Kosar 1412
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Kosar 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 80% vs Kosar 60%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +3 · Kosar -1
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.55 / Kosar 2.30
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13101929
Svoboda1.55
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Kosar2.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 57 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayKosar2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKosar leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda1Kosar2n = 3Kosar took 2 of 3
S2Svoboda3Kosar0n = 3Svoboda took 3 of 3
S3Svoboda2Kosar1n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S4Svoboda1Kosar2n = 3Kosar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSvobodaKosarS − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.736.0+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 286 vs 218 / 42151.8%51.8%148 / 286 vs 218 / 421Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.55/Kosar 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 8 · 23:00A. Svoboda—71111682V. Kosar—115611113
WApr 25 · 03:30A. Svoboda—11119113V. Kosar—561121
LApr 24 · 23:00A. Svoboda—31111662V. Kosar—114311113
A. Svoboda10
WSep 9 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.441111123R. Hasmanda2.6396100WSep 9 · 01:30L. Sulava3.403780A. Svoboda1.301111113WSep 9 · 24:00A. Svoboda1.401111113M. Novak2.757730LSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 21:28O. Fejtek1.61411771A. Svoboda2.2011611113WSep 8 · 20:30T. Regner2.389650A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 8 · 19:30A. Svoboda1.531111113M. Fisera2.389640LSep 8 · 18:30O. Fejtek1.831111113A. Svoboda1.839980WSep 7 · 03:28A. Svoboda1.531112113R. Hasmanda2.3821090WSep 7 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.731312113R. Hasmanda2.00111030
V. Kosar10
LSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242WSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.737690V. Kosar2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651LSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WAug 30 · 03:28V. Kosar1.53491111113J. Pleskot2.3811119762
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