TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092964
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117113––––
Martin Novak
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Martin Novak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 58.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 1–0 Martin Novak Martin Novak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1518 vs Novak 1466
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Novak 20%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 80% vs Novak 30%
Svoboda
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Novak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.40 / Novak 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092964
Svoboda1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Novak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog56% won 14 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayNovak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSvoboda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvobodaNovakS − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match52.051.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 283 vs 35 / 5751.2%61.4%145 / 283 vs 35 / 57Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.40/Novak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 7 · 01:30A. Svoboda—151196113M. Novak—137111192
A. Svoboda10
LSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 21:28O. Fejtek1.61411771A. Svoboda2.2011611113WSep 8 · 20:30T. Regner2.389650A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 8 · 19:30A. Svoboda1.531111113M. Fisera2.389640LSep 8 · 18:30O. Fejtek1.831111113A. Svoboda1.839980WSep 7 · 03:28A. Svoboda1.531112113R. Hasmanda2.3821090WSep 7 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.731312113R. Hasmanda2.00111030WSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113WSep 7 · 24:00A. Svoboda2.001111123P. Bruzek1.7368100WSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113
M. Novak10
WSep 9 · 01:00M. Novak2.101111133R. Hasmanda1.6785110WSep 8 · 22:30L. Sulava2.0010640M. Novak1.731211113LSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961LSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113LSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:30R. Hasmanda1.8311811113M. Novak1.83411661WSep 6 · 22:30M. Novak1.571111113P. Bruzek2.256630WAug 18 · 01:30M. Novak1.5711711113O. Vitrovyj2.25211591LAug 18 · 24:30J. Didi1.57111188113M. Novak2.2597111182LAug 17 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.441111113M. Novak2.635560
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