TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104697
Played Sep 10Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101210121161171012
Martin Stefek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 9–10 Martin Stefek Adam Svoboda has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Svoboda beat Stefek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1559 vs Stefek 1399
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Stefek 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 80% vs Stefek 60%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.53 / Stefek 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104697
Svoboda1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 60 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Stefek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 191 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 243
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayStefek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%4 of 4
AwayStefek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda6Stefek4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda6Stefek4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S4Svoboda5Stefek2n = 7Svoboda took 5 of 7
S5Svoboda3Stefek1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaStefekSvoboda − StefekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.7+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 293 vs 578 / 121052.2%47.8%153 / 293 vs 578 / 1210Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Stefek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 08:00A. Svoboda—1111113M. Stefek—3930
WSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda—1111123M. Stefek—59100
WSep 6 · 15:30A. Svoboda—41111113M. Stefek—119771
LSep 4 · 22:30A. Svoboda—9101491M. Stefek—111212113
WSep 4 · 21:29A. Svoboda—91111113M. Stefek—117741
WSep 4 · 19:00A. Svoboda—1111149113M. Stefek—85161152
LAug 24 · 12:00A. Svoboda—681111112M. Stefek—111149133
WAug 23 · 11:30A. Svoboda—5111011123M. Stefek—114128102
WAug 23 · 08:00A. Svoboda—124711113M. Stefek—101111882
LAug 22 · 15:00A. Svoboda—8850M. Stefek—1111113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112WSep 10 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.301111113R. Hasmanda3.408680WSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113WSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 10 · 07:00L. Sulava3.70612111162A. Svoboda1.19111477113LSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113WSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570WSep 9 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.441111123R. Hasmanda2.6396100WSep 9 · 01:30L. Sulava3.403780A. Svoboda1.301111113WSep 9 · 24:00A. Svoboda1.401111113M. Novak2.757730
M. Stefek10
WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113LSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113WSep 10 · 09:00L. Sulava1.8011861142M. Stefek1.91511115113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek1.809111112113L. Sulava1.9111691492WSep 9 · 17:28J. Didi1.6161141192M. Stefek2.20118117113WSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113LSep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83511561J. Didi1.8311611113WSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda1 of 2 neutral
M. Stefek1 of 2 neutral
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