TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110704
Played Sep 10Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 70.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 13–29 Michal Vedmoch Milan Kolar has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vedmoch beat Kolar 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-29 in 42
Vedmoch
Correct
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1536 vs Vedmoch 1607
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 60% vs Vedmoch 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 70% vs Vedmoch 50%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar -1 · Vedmoch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Vedmoch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 2.75 / Vedmoch 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Vedmoch)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110704
Kolar2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Vedmoch1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 212 of 332
Up 2–0, closes it97% 109 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it81% 165 of 204
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar1wins
AwayVedmoch9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar0%0 of 5
AwayVedmoch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolar2Vedmoch8n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S3Kolar5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolar1Vedmoch7n = 8Vedmoch took 7 of 8
S5Kolar1Vedmoch4n = 5Vedmoch took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarVedmochK − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.842.7−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 803 vs 718 / 133250.2%53.9%403 / 803 vs 718 / 1332Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochKolar 2.75/Vedmoch 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 16:00M. Kolar—117111042M. Vedmoch—511712113
LSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar—8161151M. Vedmoch—11186113
LSep 1 · 21:30M. Kolar—118791M. Vedmoch—91111113
LSep 1 · 19:00M. Kolar—117681M. Vedmoch—21111113
LAug 31 · 06:00M. Kolar—710111192M. Vedmoch—111298113
LAug 30 · 21:11M. Kolar—91080M. Vedmoch—1112113
LAug 30 · 19:30M. Kolar—6550M. Vedmoch—1111113
LAug 15 · 03:28M. Kolar—141127102M. Vedmoch—1281111123
LAug 15 · 24:30M. Kolar—11211632M. Vedmoch—511711113
WJul 20 · 09:30M. Kolar—7111110113M. Vedmoch—11651272
M. Kolar10
LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372WSep 10 · 13:00M. Kolar1.611111113J. Dedek2.207890LSep 10 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0010750V. Postelt1.731211113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Kolar2.2012840T. Vinter1.611411113WSep 10 · 10:00J. Dedek1.904730M. Kolar1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:30M. Kolar2.00911611123M. Placek1.73116119102WSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042LSep 10 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0081112113M. Vedmoch1.731171061WSep 10 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.61121111113M. Sedlak2.20146751WSep 10 · 02:58A. Hlawatschke1.7376110M. Vedmoch2.001111133LSep 10 · 02:30J. Hradecky1.40121111113M. Vedmoch2.75145051LSep 10 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.734111310113M. Vedmoch2.00119111292LSep 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch3.009111281V. Cermak1.36111310113WSep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.201211113D. Kouble1.6110560WSep 9 · 16:59M. Vedmoch1.73111310113M. Sedlak2.008111281LSep 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.5711105121J. Stolfa2.2581211143
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