TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115389
Played Sep 13Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117911118––
Milan Kolar
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Milan Kolar at 55.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 3–3 Milan Kolar Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 9h before this match
Svoboda beat Kolar 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:23What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1551 vs Kolar 1511
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Kolar 40%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Kolar 40%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Kolar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.91 / Kolar 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svoboda)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115389
Svoboda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kolar1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 120 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it77% 94 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayKolar3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayKolar100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Kolar3n = 6split evenly
S2Svoboda2Kolar4n = 6Kolar took 4 of 6
S3Svoboda3Kolar3n = 6split evenly
S4Svoboda1Kolar2n = 3Kolar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvobodaKolarS − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match30.532.2−1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 310 vs 405 / 80752.6%50.2%163 / 310 vs 405 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarSvoboda 1.91/Kolar 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 12 · 17:29A. Svoboda44113118113M. Kolar4171151172
LSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda32411891M. Kolar3811511113
LAug 8 · 24:00A. Svoboda189450M. Kolar331111113
LJul 18 · 01:00A. Svoboda148060M. Kolar331111113
WJun 6 · 24:00A. Svoboda331111113M. Kolar163850
WMay 30 · 02:00A. Svoboda4211911113M. Kolar32611961
A. Svoboda10
WSep 13 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.101211113M. Placek1.6710890WSep 13 · 24:00A. Mikuska1.4013871182A. Svoboda2.751111117113LSep 12 · 22:30F. Briza1.73571113113A. Svoboda2.00111161162WSep 12 · 17:29M. Kolar1.3671151172A. Svoboda3.00113118113WSep 12 · 16:00F. Jungman1.679211111A. Svoboda2.1011119133WSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113LSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113LSep 11 · 13:30J. Dedek1.431111113A. Svoboda2.607950LSep 11 · 12:00J. Dedek1.44117117133A. Svoboda2.63411911112WSep 11 · 11:00M. Svedik1.53241151A. Svoboda2.3811114113
M. Kolar10
LSep 13 · 24:30M. Kolar1.4491030F. Briza2.631112113WSep 12 · 23:00M. Kolar2.2011118113A. Mikuska1.61271151LSep 12 · 22:00M. Placek1.831111113M. Kolar1.838870LSep 12 · 17:29M. Kolar1.3671151172A. Svoboda3.00113118113WSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113LSep 12 · 15:30M. Kolar1.53164981F. Jungman2.38141111113WSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113LSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113
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