TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115402
Played Sep 13Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012311––––
Frantisek Briza
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 56 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Milan Kolar at 61.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 77–44 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 44 of their 121 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-44 in 121
Kolar
Wrong
gap of 33 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1511 vs Briza 1449
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 40% vs Briza 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 50% vs Briza 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar +1 · Briza +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 1.44 / Briza 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kolar)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115402
Kolar1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 120 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it77% 94 of 122
Briza2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 74 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back22% 29 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar5wins
AwayBriza5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar60%3 of 5
AwayBriza60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar5Briza5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolar4Briza6n = 10Briza took 6 of 10
S3Kolar6Briza4n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S4Kolar2Briza4n = 6Briza took 4 of 6
S5Kolar3Briza2n = 5Kolar took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarBrizaK − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.3+1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 807 vs 381 / 82750.2%46.1%405 / 807 vs 381 / 827Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarKolar 1.44/Briza 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 24:30M. Kolar2291030F. Briza341112113
LSep 2 · 14:00M. Kolar3911391152F. Briza47911115113
WAug 7 · 23:00M. Kolar331111113F. Briza196940
WJul 18 · 02:30M. Kolar331111113F. Briza166730
LJul 11 · 20:30M. Kolar4211119382F. Briza41351111113
LJul 11 · 17:30M. Kolar36791191F. Briza3811115113
WJul 11 · 16:30M. Kolar51971111133F. Briza46111194112
LJul 6 · 16:30M. Kolar2798100F. Briza341111123
WJul 5 · 01:00M. Kolar46711116113F. Briza4211651192
WJun 28 · 03:00M. Kolar471112112113F. Briza4641481192
M. Kolar10
WSep 12 · 23:00M. Kolar2.2011118113A. Mikuska1.61271151LSep 12 · 22:00M. Placek1.831111113M. Kolar1.838870LSep 12 · 17:29M. Kolar1.3671151172A. Svoboda3.00113118113WSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113LSep 12 · 15:30M. Kolar1.53164981F. Jungman2.38141111113WSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113LSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372
F. Briza10
WSep 12 · 23:30M. Placek1.578116111F. Briza2.2511511133WSep 12 · 22:30F. Briza1.73571113113A. Svoboda2.00111161162LSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek1.5012119113F. Briza2.501081181LSep 12 · 20:30F. Briza2.108890M. Placek1.671111113LSep 12 · 19:00F. Briza2.63511461F. Jungman1.4411611113LSep 12 · 18:00P. Fojt1.5351111113F. Briza2.38119761LSep 11 · 03:30K. Darin2.20131011113F. Briza1.601112941WSep 11 · 02:00F. Briza1.73111114123T. Regner2.007516101LSep 11 · 01:00F. Briza1.91841171K. Darin1.8011119113WSep 11 · 24:00R. Bartunek4.003780F. Briza1.221111113
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