TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115405
Played Sep 12Finished
Marek Placek
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111156111113––
Frantisek Briza
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Placek above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 76 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Marek Placek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Marek Placek 23–15 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Placek beat Briza 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Placek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Placek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Placek 1428 vs Briza 1431
Briza
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Placek 60% vs Briza 20%
Placek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Placek 50% vs Briza 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Placek +3 · Briza +1
Placek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Placek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briza form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlacek 1.57 / Briza 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Placek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115405
Placek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Briza2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 81 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back24% 32 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlacek8wins
AwayBriza2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlacek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlacek100%8 of 8
AwayBrizan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Placek8Briza2n = 10Placek took 8 of 10
S2Placek6Briza4n = 10Placek took 6 of 10
S3Placek3Briza7n = 10Briza took 7 of 10
S4Placek5Briza2n = 7Placek took 5 of 7
S5Placek3Briza0n = 3Placek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlacekBrizaP − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.537.1+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlacekBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 400 vs 379 / 82651.8%45.9%207 / 400 vs 379 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlacekPlacek 1.57/Briza 2.25
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Placek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek4312119113F. Briza371081181
WSep 12 · 20:30M. Placek331111113F. Briza258890
WAug 28 · 19:30M. Placek511111117113F. Briza4049131132
WAug 28 · 14:30M. Placek4212127113F. Briza3810101171
LJun 16 · 03:30M. Placek29711561F. Briza4211911113
WJun 15 · 22:30M. Placek331111113F. Briza216960
WJun 14 · 10:30M. Placek52119813113F. Briza45611111162
WJun 12 · 16:30M. Placek631213711203F. Briza581015114182
WMay 23 · 19:00M. Placek4311912113F. Briza327111041
LMay 9 · 19:30M. Placek269980F. Briza331111113
M. Placek10
WSep 12 · 22:00M. Placek1.831111113M. Kolar1.838870WSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek1.5012119113F. Briza2.501081181WSep 12 · 20:30F. Briza2.108890M. Placek1.671111113LSep 12 · 19:30M. Placek3.40691191P. Fojt1.3011117113LSep 12 · 18:30F. Jungman1.6771111113M. Placek2.10117991LSep 8 · 02:58M. Placek1.4411811111O. Vitrovyj2.6341113133WSep 8 · 02:30M. Placek1.801111133O. Vitrovyj1.9179110LSep 8 · 01:30K. Darin1.671111123M. Placek2.1064100LSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113WSep 7 · 23:00P. Picek2.63711291M. Placek1.4411911113
F. Briza10
WSep 12 · 22:30F. Briza1.73571113113A. Svoboda2.00111161162LSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek1.5012119113F. Briza2.501081181LSep 12 · 20:30F. Briza2.108890M. Placek1.671111113LSep 12 · 19:00F. Briza2.63511461F. Jungman1.4411611113LSep 12 · 18:00P. Fojt1.5351111113F. Briza2.38119761LSep 11 · 03:30K. Darin2.20131011113F. Briza1.601112941WSep 11 · 02:00F. Briza1.73111114123T. Regner2.007516101LSep 11 · 01:00F. Briza1.91841171K. Darin1.8011119113WSep 11 · 24:00R. Bartunek4.003780F. Briza1.221111113WSep 10 · 22:30O. Vitrovyj1.911120F. Briza1.801111113
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