TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114920
Played Sep 12Finished
Marek Placek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118117––––
Milan Kolar
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:33 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Placek above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Marek Placek at 54.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Marek Placek 21–10 Milan Kolar Milan Kolar has won 10 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-10 in 31
Placek
Correct
gap of 11 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Placek 1410 vs Kolar 1534
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Placek 40% vs Kolar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Placek 40% vs Kolar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Placek +2 · Kolar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlacek 1.83 / Kolar 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolar)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114920
Placek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kolar1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlacek5wins
AwayKolar5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlacek66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolar75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Placek6Kolar4n = 10Placek took 6 of 10
S2Placek4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S3Placek5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S4Placek3Kolar7n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S5Placek4Kolar2n = 6Placek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlacekKolarP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.043.2−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlacekKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 399 vs 404 / 80451.6%50.3%206 / 399 vs 404 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarPlacek 1.83/Kolar 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Placek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 20:30M. Placek47116119102M. Kolar49911611123
LJul 31 · 21:06M. Placek34119951M. Kolar4291111113
LJul 31 · 19:00M. Placek28751151M. Kolar4111118113
WJul 28 · 10:00M. Placek50981111113M. Kolar4311118942
WJun 16 · 24:30M. Placek48117611133M. Kolar50811119112
WJun 14 · 13:30M. Placek48111277113M. Kolar44410111182
LJun 14 · 11:00M. Placek521011114162M. Kolar53128411183
LJun 12 · 17:30M. Placek33911671M. Kolar4211911113
WJun 12 · 14:00M. Placek4011711113M. Kolar24211561
WMay 19 · 10:00M. Placek50111396113M. Kolar44611111152
M. Placek10
WSep 12 · 20:58M. Placek1.5012119113F. Briza2.501081181WSep 12 · 20:30F. Briza2.108890M. Placek1.671111113LSep 12 · 19:30M. Placek3.40691191P. Fojt1.3011117113LSep 12 · 18:30F. Jungman1.6771111113M. Placek2.10117991LSep 8 · 02:58M. Placek1.4411811111O. Vitrovyj2.6341113133WSep 8 · 02:30M. Placek1.801111133O. Vitrovyj1.9179110LSep 8 · 01:30K. Darin1.671111123M. Placek2.1064100LSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113WSep 7 · 23:00P. Picek2.63711291M. Placek1.4411911113LSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113
M. Kolar10
LSep 12 · 17:29M. Kolar1.3671151172A. Svoboda3.00113118113WSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113LSep 12 · 15:30M. Kolar1.53164981F. Jungman2.38141111113WSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113LSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372WSep 10 · 13:00M. Kolar1.611111113J. Dedek2.207890LSep 10 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0010750V. Postelt1.731211113
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