TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115419
Played Sep 12Finished
Milan Fisera
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611911––––
Milan Kolar
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Fisera above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Milan Kolar at 62.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Milan Fisera 46–47 Milan Kolar Milan Fisera has won 46 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:26What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-47 in 93
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fisera 1530 vs Kolar 1508
Fisera
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fisera 40% vs Kolar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fisera 60% vs Kolar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fisera -1 · Kolar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFisera 2.75 / Kolar 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kolar)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115419
Fisera2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Kolar1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 126 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 96 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFisera2wins
AwayKolar8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolar leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFisera25%1 of 4
AwayKolar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fisera4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S2Fisera1Kolar9n = 10Kolar took 9 of 10
S3Fisera4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S4Fisera3Kolar3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiseraKolarF − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.238.3−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiseraKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 353 vs 403 / 80246.7%50.3%165 / 353 vs 403 / 802Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarFisera 2.75/Kolar 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 1 · 16:30M. Fisera29137631M. Kolar44111111113
LJun 21 · 01:00M. Fisera174850M. Kolar331111113
LJun 18 · 13:30M. Fisera195860M. Kolar331111113
WJun 18 · 12:30M. Fisera43111011113M. Kolar36812881
LMay 27 · 10:00M. Fisera31381191M. Kolar3611113113
WMay 17 · 15:30M. Fisera46131111113M. Kolar36156961
LApr 7 · 21:28M. Fisera196760M. Kolar331111113
LApr 7 · 18:00M. Fisera2021080M. Kolar341112113
LMar 18 · 17:30M. Fisera40111011172M. Kolar46712115113
LMar 12 · 13:59M. Fisera4811515892M. Kolar526111311113
M. Fisera10
LSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113WSep 12 · 14:00F. Jungman1.44911851M. Fisera2.6311611113LSep 8 · 20:58T. Regner1.5011811113M. Fisera2.50211391WSep 8 · 20:00M. Fisera2.00111175113O. Fejtek1.7377111192LSep 8 · 19:30A. Svoboda1.531111113M. Fisera2.389640LSep 8 · 18:00M. Fisera2.25101070T. Regner1.571212113WSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113WSep 2 · 19:00V. Dolezal2.63311971M. Fisera1.4411711113WSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112
M. Kolar10
LSep 12 · 15:30M. Kolar1.53164981F. Jungman2.38141111113WSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113LSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372WSep 10 · 13:00M. Kolar1.611111113J. Dedek2.207890LSep 10 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0010750V. Postelt1.731211113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Kolar2.2012840T. Vinter1.611411113WSep 10 · 10:00J. Dedek1.904730M. Kolar1.801111113
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