TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120273
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114911119611118
David Barton
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 80.0% is still 80.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Barton to win
80.0%
80.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · David Barton below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held David Barton at 80.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 1–6 David Barton Martin Stefek has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Stefek beat Barton 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:45What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Barton
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Barton
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1322 vs Barton 1380
Barton
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Barton 40%
Barton
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 20% vs Barton 40%
Barton
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -3 · Barton -1
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Barton) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.50 / Barton 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Barton)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120273
Stefek2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 175 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 134
Barton1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 36 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwayBarton6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderBarton leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek33.3%1 of 3
AwayBarton100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek3Barton4n = 7Barton took 4 of 7
S2Stefek2Barton5n = 7Barton took 5 of 7
S3Stefek2Barton5n = 7Barton took 5 of 7
S4Stefek1Barton2n = 3Barton took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricStefekBartonS − BBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match30.639.0−8.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime580 / 1220 vs 132 / 25947.5%51%580 / 1220 vs 132 / 259Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonStefek 2.50/Barton 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 13 · 06:00M. Stefek371111153D. Barton2887130
LJul 4 · 14:00M. Stefek47101151472D. Barton511251112113
LApr 25 · 08:59M. Stefek179260D. Barton331111113
LApr 25 · 08:00M. Stefek2348110D. Barton351111133
LFeb 15 · 09:00M. Stefek186750D. Barton331111113
LFeb 14 · 18:02M. Stefek45111111662D. Barton51813811113
LFeb 14 · 17:00M. Stefek27115291D. Barton4291111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 13 · 09:07M. Stefek10.0043111632V. Dolezal1.031111914113LSep 13 · 08:30M. Stefek2.75411118132V. Dolezal1.40115511153LSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek4.50138941D. Horak1.17111111113WSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LSep 12 · 02:00M. Stefek1.91741251M. Ulrych1.80111110113LSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 12 · 24:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780LSep 11 · 22:30J. Didi1.73881112113M. Stefek2.00111181052LSep 11 · 09:30M. Stefek1.65124130Z. Zikmunda2.101411153WSep 11 · 08:00M. Stefek1.8311411113J. Pleskot1.83411881
D. Barton10
LSep 13 · 09:29D. Horak1.931311113D. Barton1.7811680WSep 13 · 08:00D. Barton2.20761111113D. Horak1.6111117152WSep 13 · 07:30V. Dolezal2.389141351D. Barton1.53111611113LSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LAug 20 · 02:58T. Regner1.83125911123D. Barton1.831011115102LAug 20 · 02:00D. Barton1.611311119102T. Regner2.20155811123WAug 20 · 01:00D. Barton1.611111123V. Dolezal2.2098100LAug 20 · 24:00J. Didi1.831411113D. Barton1.8312780WAug 19 · 22:30O. Vitrovyj1.5013880D. Barton2.501511113LAug 18 · 15:59D. Barton2.2541330T. Prosa1.57111573
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