TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110112
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Urban
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Urban to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Urban above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Roman Urban at 60.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Roman Urban 5–2 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Urban
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1425 vs Stefek 1382
Urban
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Stefek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Stefek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -3 · Stefek -2
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.57 / Stefek 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Urban)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110112
Urban1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 39 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Stefek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 193 of 441
Down 0–1, comes back23% 57 of 245
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUrban5wins
AwayStefek2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderUrban leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban83.3%5 of 6
AwayStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban6Stefek1n = 7Urban took 6 of 7
S2Urban3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S3Urban3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S4Urban3Stefek1n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricUrbanStefekU − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match36.131.9+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 137 vs 581 / 121751.8%47.7%71 / 137 vs 581 / 1217Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.57/Stefek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban—111112113M. Stefek—951471
LAug 29 · 24:00R. Urban—4890M. Stefek—1111113
LMay 22 · 20:00R. Urban—114831M. Stefek—61111113
WMay 9 · 24:30R. Urban—12911113M. Stefek—1011861
WApr 29 · 24:00R. Urban—1112113M. Stefek—71070
WApr 4 · 02:30R. Urban—129811113M. Stefek—101111562
WJan 24 · 03:30R. Urban—1111113M. Stefek—3740
R. Urban10
LSep 11 · 23:00M. Ulrych2.381311113R. Urban1.5311590LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172LSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113LAug 29 · 02:00R. Urban1.7311101371J. Didi2.0081215113WAug 29 · 01:00R. Urban1.731111113T. Andrle2.002260LAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890
M. Stefek10
LSep 11 · 22:30J. Didi1.73881112113M. Stefek2.00111181052LSep 11 · 09:30M. Stefek1.65124130Z. Zikmunda2.101411153WSep 11 · 08:00M. Stefek1.8311411113J. Pleskot1.83411881WSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Stefek1.80811115112L. Sulava1.91118911133LSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750WSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113LSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471WAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890
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