TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114049
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12144111315––––
Zdenek Zikmunda
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Zdenek Zikmunda below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 69 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Martin Stefek at 58.8%
69 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 1–0 Zdenek Zikmunda Zdenek Zikmunda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stefek beat Zikmunda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:16What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1410 vs Zikmunda 1362
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Zikmunda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Zikmunda 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Zikmunda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zikmunda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.65 / Zikmunda 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Stefek)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114049
Stefek1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 122 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 89 of 119
Zikmunda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 4 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStefek1wins
AwayZikmunda0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStefek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStefekZikmundaS − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match50.041.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekZikmundaBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1215 vs 10 / 2747.8%37%581 / 1215 vs 10 / 27Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.65/Zikmunda 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zikmunda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 11 · 07:30M. Stefek—7111011113Z. Zikmunda—11712652
M. Stefek10
WSep 11 · 08:00M. Stefek1.8311411113J. Pleskot1.83411881WSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Stefek1.80811115112L. Sulava1.91118911133LSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750WSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113LSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113WSep 10 · 09:00L. Sulava1.8011861142M. Stefek1.91511115113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171
Z. Zikmunda10
WSep 11 · 08:30L. Sulava2.00111011692Z. Zikmunda1.73812611113LSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113WSep 11 · 06:30J. Pleskot1.8013137101Z. Zikmunda1.91151111123LSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113WSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:30M. Barta1.678230Z. Zikmunda2.101111113LSep 5 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda2.389790J. Strnad1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.735111011113Z. Zikmunda2.0011612792WSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113LSep 5 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.0091171482Z. Drabek1.731171112113
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