TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13109851
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117115––––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 54.6%
51 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 37–18 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 18 of their 55 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Dolezal beat Stefek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-18 in 55
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 19 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1433 vs Stefek 1414
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal -1 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.48 / Stefek 2.45
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13109851
Dolezal1.48
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 140 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 127
Stefek2.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 191 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 243
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal8wins
AwayStefek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDolezal leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal100%4 of 4
AwayStefek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Dolezal9Stefek1n = 10Dolezal took 9 of 10
S3Dolezal6Stefek4n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S4Dolezal7Stefek2n = 9Dolezal took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalStefekD − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.835.4+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 771 vs 579 / 121149.3%47.8%380 / 771 vs 579 / 1211Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.48/Stefek 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 10:30V. Dolezal—1111113M. Stefek—5930
WSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal—11118113M. Stefek—791171
WSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal—411811123M. Stefek—116117102
WSep 8 · 03:30V. Dolezal—11117113M. Stefek—471191
LSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal—4913101M. Stefek—111111123
WSep 5 · 01:30V. Dolezal—91111113M. Stefek—115681
LSep 4 · 20:30V. Dolezal—911129102M. Stefek—1191011123
WAug 31 · 02:30V. Dolezal—91117113M. Stefek—1181571
WAug 28 · 03:28V. Dolezal—71111113M. Stefek—116761
WAug 28 · 01:30V. Dolezal—11118113M. Stefek—571151
V. Dolezal10
LSep 10 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.61111107113V. Dolezal2.2089111152WSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112WSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113LSep 10 · 08:30L. Sulava2.631111113V. Dolezal1.441940WSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113LSep 9 · 09:28J. Pleskot2.75111265113V. Dolezal1.40910111192WSep 9 · 08:30V. Dolezal1.331117155113J. Pleskot3.25519131192WSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102
M. Stefek10
WSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113LSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113WSep 10 · 09:00L. Sulava1.8011861142M. Stefek1.91511115113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek1.809111112113L. Sulava1.9111691492WSep 9 · 17:28J. Didi1.6161141192M. Stefek2.20118117113WSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113LSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.