TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120479
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311811911411––
David Horak
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 80.2% is still 80.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
80.2%
80.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 78 set 4, 4-11 — our read held David Horak at 80.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 0–4 David Horak Martin Stefek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Horak
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1351 vs Horak 1451
Horak
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Horak 40%
Horak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Horak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Horak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (40%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 4.50 / Horak 1.17
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Horak)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120479
Stefek4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 175 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 134
Horak1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 135 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it81% 103 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStefek0wins
AwayHorak4wins
Horak leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHorak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek1Horak3n = 4Horak took 3 of 4
S2Stefek0Horak4n = 4Horak took 4 of 4
S3Stefek1Horak3n = 4Horak took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricStefekHorakS − HBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match26.238.2−12.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime580 / 1218 vs 277 / 51447.6%53.9%580 / 1218 vs 277 / 514Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakStefek 4.50/Horak 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.2%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek34138941D. Horak44111111113
LMay 29 · 23:30M. Stefek30551191D. Horak3911116113
LMay 10 · 12:59M. Stefek25310120D. Horak371112143
LMay 10 · 12:00M. Stefek166640D. Horak331111113
M. Stefek10
WSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LSep 12 · 02:00M. Stefek1.91741251M. Ulrych1.80111110113LSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 12 · 24:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780LSep 11 · 22:30J. Didi1.73881112113M. Stefek2.00111181052LSep 11 · 09:30M. Stefek1.65124130Z. Zikmunda2.101411153WSep 11 · 08:00M. Stefek1.8311411113J. Pleskot1.83411881WSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Stefek1.80811115112L. Sulava1.91118911133LSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750
D. Horak10
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Horak1.2891111113V. Dolezal3.50113861LSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 01:30D. Horak2.50116971Y. Holovatiuk1.5071111113WSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:30D. Horak1.801011691K. Darin1.9112811113LSep 4 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.571111113D. Horak2.259470WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.6751181182D. Horak2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:00K. Darin1.917911101D. Horak1.8011118123LSep 4 · 14:30D. Horak2.50117961M. Placek1.5071111113
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