TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119834
Played Sep 13Finished
David Horak
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113118116––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 5–2 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Dolezal has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Horak
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1442 vs Dolezal 1369
Horak
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 20% vs Dolezal 40%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 30% vs Dolezal 50%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -2 · Dolezal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.28 / Dolezal 3.50
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Horak)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13119834
Horak1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 135 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it81% 103 of 127
Dolezal3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 33 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHorak5wins
AwayDolezal2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderHorak leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak80%4 of 5
AwayDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak5Dolezal2n = 7Horak took 5 of 7
S2Horak5Dolezal2n = 7Horak took 5 of 7
S3Horak6Dolezal1n = 7Horak took 6 of 7
S4Horak2Dolezal1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricHorakDolezalH − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.929.7+7.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 513 vs 379 / 77053.8%49.2%276 / 513 vs 379 / 770Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.28/Dolezal 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Horak4291111113V. Dolezal28113861
WApr 6 · 11:30D. Horak371313113V. Dolezal30111180
WApr 6 · 07:30D. Horak341112113V. Dolezal2561090
WApr 2 · 22:30D. Horak341111123V. Dolezal2358100
LAug 10 · 13:30D. Horak33119761V. Dolezal4071111113
LAug 10 · 10:30D. Horak4577111192V. Dolezal47111169103
WApr 21 · 07:00D. Horak331111113V. Dolezal152850
D. Horak10
LSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 01:30D. Horak2.50116971Y. Holovatiuk1.5071111113WSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:30D. Horak1.801011691K. Darin1.9112811113LSep 4 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.571111113D. Horak2.259470WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.6751181182D. Horak2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:00K. Darin1.917911101D. Horak1.8011118123LSep 4 · 14:30D. Horak2.50117961M. Placek1.5071111113LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak2.40101040M. Kolar1.511212113
V. Dolezal10
LSep 12 · 02:58R. Urban1.5371111113V. Dolezal2.38118981LSep 12 · 02:30R. Urban1.731111143V. Dolezal2.0084120WSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Dolezal1.805790J. Didi1.911111113WSep 11 · 22:00V. Dolezal1.801215911113M. Ulrych1.91101711842WSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750LSep 10 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.61111107113V. Dolezal2.2089111152WSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112WSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113
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