TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110737
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Urban
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181141412––––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Urban above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 60 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Roman Urban at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Roman Urban 4–4 Vaclav Dolezal Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:32What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1422 vs Dolezal 1450
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 20% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -1 · Dolezal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.73 / Dolezal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110737
Urban1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 39 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Dolezal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 43 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeUrban4wins
AwayDolezal4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban75%3 of 4
AwayDolezal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Dolezal4n = 8split evenly
S2Urban5Dolezal3n = 8Urban took 5 of 8
S3Urban6Dolezal2n = 8Urban took 6 of 8
S4Urban1Dolezal5n = 6Dolezal took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricUrbanDolezalU − DBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.537.50.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 139 vs 382 / 77151.8%49.6%72 / 139 vs 382 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.73/Dolezal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban—912118113V. Dolezal—111061172
LAug 16 · 03:29R. Urban—871131V. Dolezal—11115113
LAug 16 · 02:30R. Urban—761191V. Dolezal—11116113
WJun 14 · 01:30R. Urban—1212123V. Dolezal—1010100
LMay 16 · 24:30R. Urban—961161V. Dolezal—11117113
LMay 9 · 02:59R. Urban—11115882V. Dolezal—881111113
WMay 8 · 22:30R. Urban—1113133V. Dolezal—711110
WFeb 1 · 24:30R. Urban—11116113V. Dolezal—591151
R. Urban10
WSep 12 · 02:58R. Urban1.5371111113V. Dolezal2.38118981LSep 12 · 01:30J. Didi1.731111113R. Urban2.003880WSep 12 · 24:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780LSep 11 · 23:00M. Ulrych2.381311113R. Urban1.5311590LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172LSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113
V. Dolezal10
LSep 12 · 02:58R. Urban1.5371111113V. Dolezal2.38118981WSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 11 · 23:30V. Dolezal1.805790J. Didi1.911111113WSep 11 · 22:00V. Dolezal1.801215911113M. Ulrych1.91101711842WSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750LSep 10 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.61111107113V. Dolezal2.2089111152WSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112WSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172
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