TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110734
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7114111210511––
Martin Ulrych
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Martin Ulrych below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Martin Stefek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 4–2 Martin Ulrych Martin Ulrych has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:32What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ulrych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1361 vs Ulrych 1477
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Ulrych 80%
Ulrych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Ulrych 90%
Ulrych
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -4 · Ulrych +2
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ulrych) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ulrych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.91 / Ulrych 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ulrych)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110734
Stefek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 193 of 441
Down 0–1, comes back23% 57 of 245
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 147
Ulrych1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 46 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayUlrych2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStefek leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%3 of 4
AwayUlrychn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Ulrych2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S2Stefek5Ulrych1n = 6Stefek took 5 of 6
S3Stefek3Ulrych3n = 6split evenly
S4Stefek2Ulrych2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStefekUlrychS − UBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.837.8+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekUlrychBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1219 vs 95 / 15647.7%60.9%581 / 1219 vs 95 / 156Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UlrychStefek 1.91/Ulrych 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ulrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 7 · 23:30M. Stefek—81112113M. Ulrych—1191081
WJun 19 · 15:30M. Stefek—1111113M. Ulrych—8460
LJun 16 · 16:30M. Stefek—1361331M. Ulrych—111115113
LMay 12 · 02:58M. Stefek—81161242M. Ulrych—1181110113
WMay 11 · 22:00M. Stefek—121299133M. Ulrych—10101111112
WApr 29 · 02:00M. Stefek—1111113M. Ulrych—3970
M. Stefek10
LSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 12 · 24:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780LSep 11 · 22:30J. Didi1.73881112113M. Stefek2.00111181052LSep 11 · 09:30M. Stefek1.65124130Z. Zikmunda2.101411153WSep 11 · 08:00M. Stefek1.8311411113J. Pleskot1.83411881WSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Stefek1.80811115112L. Sulava1.91118911133LSep 10 · 13:30V. Dolezal1.481111113M. Stefek2.456750WSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113
M. Ulrych10
WSep 12 · 03:28M. Ulrych1.36891111113J. Didi3.0011116892WSep 12 · 24:30M. Ulrych1.4011311113J. Didi2.75411841WSep 11 · 23:00M. Ulrych2.381311113R. Urban1.5311590LSep 11 · 22:00V. Dolezal1.801215911113M. Ulrych1.91101711842WSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580WAug 31 · 13:30M. Ulrych2.63911911113Z. Zikmunda1.4411811772
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