TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120472
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Ulrych
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191210711118––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Ulrych to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Ulrych above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Martin Ulrych at 60.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Ulrych 3–4 Martin Stefek Martin Ulrych has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ulrych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ulrych 1472 vs Stefek 1337
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ulrych 60% vs Stefek 20%
Ulrych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ulrych 70% vs Stefek 20%
Ulrych
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ulrych -2 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Ulrych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUlrych 1.61 / Stefek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Ulrych)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120472
Ulrych1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 43 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Stefek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 175 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUlrych3wins
AwayStefek4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderStefek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUlrych66.7%2 of 3
AwayStefek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ulrych3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S2Ulrych2Stefek5n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S3Ulrych3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S4Ulrych3Stefek2n = 5Ulrych took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricUlrychStefekU − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.638.1+0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUlrychStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 160 vs 581 / 122260.6%47.6%97 / 160 vs 581 / 1222Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UlrychUlrych 1.61/Stefek 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.1%
Ulrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 12 · 02:00M. Ulrych43111110113M. Stefek28741251
LJul 7 · 23:30M. Ulrych381191081M. Stefek4281112113
LJun 19 · 15:30M. Ulrych188460M. Stefek331111113
WJun 16 · 16:30M. Ulrych48111115113M. Stefek351361331
WMay 12 · 02:58M. Ulrych511181110113M. Stefek4181161242
LMay 11 · 22:00M. Ulrych5310101111112M. Stefek55121299133
LApr 29 · 02:00M. Ulrych193970M. Stefek331111113
M. Ulrych10
LSep 13 · 11:30D. Barton1.801111133M. Ulrych1.9117110LSep 13 · 10:00M. Ulrych2.007370V. Dolezal1.731111113WSep 12 · 03:28M. Ulrych1.36891111113J. Didi3.0011116892WSep 12 · 02:00M. Stefek1.91741251M. Ulrych1.80111110113WSep 12 · 24:30M. Ulrych1.4011311113J. Didi2.75411841WSep 11 · 23:00M. Ulrych2.381311113R. Urban1.5311590LSep 11 · 22:00V. Dolezal1.801215911113M. Ulrych1.91101711842WSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113
M. Stefek10
LSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361WSep 13 · 10:30M. Stefek2.50119116113D. Barton1.5041191182LSep 13 · 09:07M. Stefek10.0043111632V. Dolezal1.031111914113LSep 13 · 08:30M. Stefek2.75411118132V. Dolezal1.40115511153LSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek4.50138941D. Horak1.17111111113WSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LSep 12 · 02:00M. Stefek1.91741251M. Ulrych1.80111110113LSep 12 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63134371V. Dolezal1.44111111113LSep 12 · 24:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780LSep 11 · 22:30J. Didi1.73881112113M. Stefek2.00111181052
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