Martin Stefek vs Martin Novak 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13135823

Played Sep 16Finished

Martin Stefek

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1191161012115––

Martin Novak

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Martin Novak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Martin Novak below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 75 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Novak at 54.0%

75 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:57

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Novak

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Stefek 1339 vs Novak 1473

Novak

Wrong

both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Stefek 20% vs Novak 60%

Novak

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Stefek 30% vs Novak 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Stefek +1 · Novak -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsStefek 2.00 / Novak 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Novak)+0.3pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13135823

Stefek2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog43% won 177 of 415

Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 228

Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 136

Novak1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite67% won 22 of 33

Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12

Up 1–0, closes it94% 15 of 16

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricStefekNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime585 / 1230 vs 37 / 6147.6%60.7%585 / 1230 vs 37 / 61Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Novak

Stefek 2.00/Novak 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Novak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Stefek won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Stefek10