TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13127923
Played Sep 15Finished
Vaclav Kosar
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1189111162018––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Kosar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 20-18
Point 94 set 4, 20-18 — our read held Vaclav Kosar at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 6–7 Martin Stefek Vaclav Kosar has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1407 vs Stefek 1354
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 60% vs Stefek 40%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 60% vs Stefek 40%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar +1 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kosar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 2.00 / Stefek 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kosar)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13127923
Kosar2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 58 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Stefek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 109 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 80 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar4wins
AwayStefek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar80%4 of 5
AwayStefek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kosar1Stefek9n = 10Stefek took 9 of 10
S3Kosar8Stefek2n = 10Kosar took 8 of 10
S4Kosar3Stefek6n = 9Stefek took 6 of 9
S5Kosar2Stefek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarStefekK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.9−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 425 vs 584 / 122752%47.6%221 / 425 vs 584 / 1227Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosarKosar 2.00/Stefek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar5111911203M. Stefek438116181
LJul 29 · 19:30V. Kosar4011711292M. Stefek42511411113
LJul 8 · 01:00V. Kosar4467111192M. Stefek46111158113
WJul 3 · 21:00V. Kosar4011711113M. Stefek31911741
LJul 3 · 19:30V. Kosar4110111191M. Stefek4412813113
LJun 30 · 03:30V. Kosar34581291M. Stefek43111110113
WJun 30 · 02:00V. Kosar491151111113M. Stefek4671161392
WMay 18 · 20:00V. Kosar41112115123M. Stefek41311611102
LJan 16 · 24:30V. Kosar369611101M. Stefek4011116123
LJan 13 · 21:30V. Kosar143650M. Stefek331111113
V. Kosar10
WSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 24:00R. Bartunek1.365101171V. Kosar3.0011127113LSep 14 · 22:30V. Dolezal1.3311913113V. Kosar3.257111181WSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570LSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242
M. Stefek10
LSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741LSep 14 · 23:30M. Stefek2.6366111172V. Dolezal1.44111177113WSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek1.911111153T. Regner1.8088130LSep 14 · 09:00M. Stefek2.008730A. Svoboda1.731111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113WSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek2.25111111113A. Svoboda1.57413751LSep 14 · 06:00K. Darin1.44911911133M. Stefek2.63117112112WSep 13 · 13:00M. Stefek1.90101111113M. Ulrych1.80123851LSep 13 · 12:00M. Ulrych1.6111127113M. Stefek2.209101181LSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361
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