TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103184
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Kosar
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113119––––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Kosar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 50 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Vaclav Kosar at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 22–15 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kosar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Kosar
Correct
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1403 vs Strnad 1397
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 60% vs Strnad 80%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 50% vs Strnad 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar -2 · Strnad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kosar) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 1.61 / Strnad 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kosar)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103184
Kosar1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 63 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Strnad2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 97 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar5wins
AwayStrnad5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrnad75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar6Strnad4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S2Kosar6Strnad4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S3Kosar5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosar3Strnad4n = 7Strnad took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarStrnadK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.733.70.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 422 vs 541 / 110951.7%48.8%218 / 422 vs 541 / 1109Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosarKosar 1.61/Strnad 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Kosar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 02:59V. Kosar—11119113J. Strnad—471151
LSep 5 · 23:00V. Kosar—65100J. Strnad—1111123
LAug 25 · 24:00V. Kosar—159321J. Strnad—131111113
WAug 22 · 20:30V. Kosar—1111113J. Strnad—4430
WAug 22 · 02:00V. Kosar—1111143J. Strnad—79120
WJul 5 · 03:00V. Kosar—71111113J. Strnad—118841
LJul 5 · 01:30V. Kosar—11115272J. Strnad—581111113
WJun 18 · 11:00V. Kosar—11712113J. Strnad—7111091
LJun 2 · 24:00V. Kosar—811741J. Strnad—11511113
LMay 31 · 02:00V. Kosar—751161J. Strnad—11116113
V. Kosar10
LSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570LSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242WSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.737690V. Kosar2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651LSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100
J. Strnad10
LSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172WSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:30P. Kulhanek1.739121341J. Strnad2.00111015113WSep 7 · 12:30J. Strnad1.2210131110113J. Svec4.00121151272LSep 7 · 11:00J. Strnad1.805870P. Kulhanek1.911111113WSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100
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