TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098622
Played Sep 9Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179115111311311
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 92 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 8–14 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Milan Chalupnicek has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:29What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Strnad
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1359 vs Strnad 1356
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 80% vs Strnad 60%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Strnad 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +3 · Strnad +2
Chalupnicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.50 / Strnad 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Strnad)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13098622
Chalupnicek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 43
Strnad1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 131 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it74% 103 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek4wins
AwayStrnad6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek60%3 of 5
AwayStrnad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupnicek3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Chalupnicek5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupnicek1Strnad5n = 6Strnad took 5 of 6
S5Chalupnicek3Strnad2n = 5Chalupnicek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekStrnadC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.7−3.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 663 vs 538 / 110549.5%48.7%328 / 663 vs 538 / 1105Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadChalupnicek 2.50/Strnad 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—8480J. Strnad—1111113
LSep 4 · 12:30M. Chalupnicek—12611752J. Strnad—1011711113
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek—119118113J. Strnad—31191142
LAug 24 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—7950J. Strnad—1111113
LAug 14 · 06:30M. Chalupnicek—581191J. Strnad—11119113
WJul 17 · 13:04M. Chalupnicek—1111123J. Strnad—97100
WJul 17 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—1114146113J. Strnad—812161192
LMay 19 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—118111382J. Strnad—911615113
WApr 13 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek—5111115133J. Strnad—1161313112
LApr 8 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—6590J. Strnad—1111113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 7 · 13:09M. Chalupnicek1.3011117123J. Svec3.404411101WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381WSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec2.101012141142M. Chalupnicek1.671210169113LSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752
J. Strnad10
WSep 7 · 13:30P. Kulhanek1.739121341J. Strnad2.00111015113WSep 7 · 12:30J. Strnad1.2210131110113J. Svec4.00121151272LSep 7 · 11:00J. Strnad1.805870P. Kulhanek1.911111113WSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752
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