TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104183
Played Sep 9Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
1.49
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111161113811––
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
2.27
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 61.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 15–8 Milan Chalupnicek Milan Chalupnicek has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Strnad beat Chalupnicek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (60%)
Strnad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1411 vs Chalupnicek 1350
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 100% vs Chalupnicek 80%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 60% vs Chalupnicek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +5 · Chalupnicek +2
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.49 / Chalupnicek 2.27
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Strnad)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104183
Strnad1.49
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 131 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it74% 103 of 140
Chalupnicek2.27
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad6wins
AwayChalupnicek4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad75%3 of 4
AwayChalupnicek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad4Chalupnicek6n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S2Strnad7Chalupnicek3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Strnad5Chalupnicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strnad5Chalupnicek2n = 7Strnad took 5 of 7
S5Strnad3Chalupnicek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadChalupnicekS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.540.2+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1108 vs 330 / 66648.8%49.6%541 / 1108 vs 330 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.49/Chalupnicek 2.27
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 10:00J. Strnad—7111111113M. Chalupnicek—11951332
WSep 7 · 10:00J. Strnad—1111113M. Chalupnicek—8480
WSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad—1011711113M. Chalupnicek—12611752
LSep 1 · 07:30J. Strnad—31191142M. Chalupnicek—119118113
WAug 24 · 06:00J. Strnad—1111113M. Chalupnicek—7950
WAug 14 · 06:30J. Strnad—11119113M. Chalupnicek—581191
LJul 17 · 13:04J. Strnad—97100M. Chalupnicek—1111123
LJul 17 · 10:00J. Strnad—812161192M. Chalupnicek—1114146113
WMay 19 · 10:30J. Strnad—911615113M. Chalupnicek—118111382
LApr 13 · 11:30J. Strnad—1161313112M. Chalupnicek—5111115133
J. Strnad10
WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172WSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:30P. Kulhanek1.739121341J. Strnad2.00111015113WSep 7 · 12:30J. Strnad1.2210131110113J. Svec4.00121151272LSep 7 · 11:00J. Strnad1.805870P. Kulhanek1.911111113WSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 9 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.531111133P. Kulhanek2.3847110WSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:09M. Chalupnicek1.3011117123J. Svec3.404411101WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381WSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec2.101012141142M. Chalupnicek1.671210169113LSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171
Upcoming Matches
J. Strnad
M. Chalupnicek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.