TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128704
Played Sep 15Finished
Vaclav Kosar
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121210119––––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Regner at 63.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 4–9 Tomas Regner Vaclav Kosar has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Regner
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1407 vs Regner 1323
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 80% vs Regner 20%
Kosar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 60% vs Regner 20%
Kosar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar +2 · Regner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 2.75 / Regner 1.40
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kosar)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128704
Kosar2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 58 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Regner1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 89 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it70% 60 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar4wins
AwayRegner6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar80%4 of 5
AwayRegner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Kosar2Regner8n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S3Kosar6Regner4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S4Kosar3Regner3n = 6split evenly
S5Kosar2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarRegnerK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.7−2.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 425 vs 484 / 98452%49.2%221 / 425 vs 484 / 984Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerKosar 2.75/Regner 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.1%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 26 · 12:00V. Kosar72320T. Regner331111113
LJul 20 · 03:00V. Kosar32119120T. Regner381311143
LJul 20 · 02:30V. Kosar257990T. Regner331111113
WJul 17 · 12:00V. Kosar50146118113T. Regner41121151122
WJul 16 · 11:00V. Kosar45117115113T. Regner4491151182
LJul 14 · 22:30V. Kosar48116111282T. Regner52811814113
WJul 12 · 21:04V. Kosar4011117113T. Regner28451181
LJul 12 · 20:30V. Kosar4769111292T. Regner501111710113
LJul 9 · 13:00V. Kosar4667131192T. Regner521111118113
WJul 9 · 12:30V. Kosar341111123T. Regner2697100
V. Kosar10
WSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar2.0011911203M. Stefek1.738116181WSep 15 · 24:00R. Bartunek1.365101171V. Kosar3.0011127113LSep 14 · 22:30V. Dolezal1.3311913113V. Kosar3.257111181WSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570LSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242
T. Regner10
WSep 15 · 24:30T. Regner2.63411711163V. Dolezal1.44119118142LSep 14 · 23:00T. Regner2.50111110772R. Bartunek1.50561211113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek1.911111153T. Regner1.8088130LSep 11 · 02:00F. Briza1.73111114123T. Regner2.007516101LSep 11 · 24:30T. Regner1.80121181232O. Vitrovyj1.911481110113LSep 10 · 23:00T. Regner2.5011811452R. Bartunek1.50911111113LSep 10 · 22:00K. Darin1.4011114113T. Regner2.75631191LSep 9 · 16:59T. Regner2.258760J. Steffan1.571111113LSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113WSep 9 · 15:00T. Regner2.131212211113J. Steffan1.56141011692
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