TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104987
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Kosar
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210211811117116
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 59.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 3–9 Miroslav Novotny Vaclav Kosar has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1397 vs Novotny 1264
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 40% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 60% vs Novotny 30%
Kosar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar -1 · Novotny -3
Novotny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 2.00 / Novotny 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kosar)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104987
Kosar2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 59 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Novotny1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 31 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar3wins
AwayNovotny7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar1Novotny9n = 10Novotny took 9 of 10
S2Kosar7Novotny3n = 10Kosar took 7 of 10
S3Kosar6Novotny4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S4Kosar3Novotny6n = 9Novotny took 6 of 9
S5Kosar1Novotny3n = 4Novotny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarNovotnyK − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.0−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 424 vs 157 / 33451.7%47%219 / 424 vs 157 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyKosar 2.00/Novotny 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar—981191M. Novotny—11114113
LAug 28 · 15:30V. Kosar—71171172M. Novotny—115118113
WAug 22 · 21:28V. Kosar—101111113M. Novotny—124971
LAug 22 · 18:00V. Kosar—811791M. Novotny—11411113
LJul 29 · 18:00V. Kosar—511541M. Novotny—11611113
WJul 28 · 03:00V. Kosar—101811113M. Novotny—1216951
LJul 27 · 23:00V. Kosar—512111092M. Novotny—1110612113
WJul 5 · 02:30V. Kosar—411117113M. Novotny—11561182
LMay 2 · 24:30V. Kosar—6160M. Novotny—1111113
LAug 16 · 24:30V. Kosar—11311582M. Novotny—811211113
V. Kosar10
LSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570LSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242WSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar2.63115611113A. Svoboda1.4471111682WSep 8 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.737690V. Kosar2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651
M. Novotny10
LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123
Upcoming Matches
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