TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103397
Played Sep 10Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191199111012115
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 98 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 60.4%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 5–16 Miroslav Novotny Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1383 vs Novotny 1279
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Novotny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 60% vs Novotny 30%
Strnad
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -2 · Novotny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 3.25 / Novotny 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Novotny)+0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103397
Strnad3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 97 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 83
Novotny1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 31 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad0wins
AwayNovotny10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S2Strnad2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S3Strnad3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Strnad1Novotny5n = 6Novotny took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadNovotnyS − NBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.739.8−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1110 vs 157 / 33348.7%47.2%541 / 1110 vs 157 / 333Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyStrnad 3.25/Novotny 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 02:00J. Strnad—9811101M. Novotny—11119123
LAug 22 · 19:30J. Strnad—971181M. Novotny—11117113
LAug 15 · 20:00J. Strnad—7770M. Novotny—1111113
LAug 3 · 16:30J. Strnad—8111181M. Novotny—11713113
LAug 1 · 24:00J. Strnad—129121132M. Novotny—1011146113
LJul 4 · 23:30J. Strnad—6670M. Novotny—1111113
LJun 7 · 01:30J. Strnad—1271181M. Novotny—14118113
LMay 1 · 22:30J. Strnad—111180M. Novotny—1313113
LMar 21 · 24:30J. Strnad—11118682M. Novotny—531111113
LSep 26 · 20:30J. Strnad—7280M. Novotny—1111113
J. Strnad10
LSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172WSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:30P. Kulhanek1.739121341J. Strnad2.00111015113WSep 7 · 12:30J. Strnad1.2210131110113J. Svec4.00121151272LSep 7 · 11:00J. Strnad1.805870P. Kulhanek1.911111113WSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113
M. Novotny10
LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650
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