TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104993
Played Sep 10Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119611411511
Pavel Berdych
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 64.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 11–6 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1291 vs Berdych 1256
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Berdych 20%
Novotny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 40% vs Berdych 20%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Berdych -4
Berdych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.44 / Berdych 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Novotny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104993
Novotny1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 31 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Berdych2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 17 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny6wins
AwayBerdych4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny80%4 of 5
AwayBerdych60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny7Berdych3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Novotny7Berdych3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Novotny4Berdych4n = 8split evenly
S5Novotny1Berdych2n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyBerdychN − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.535.0+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 336 vs 213 / 43947.3%48.5%159 / 336 vs 213 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.44/Berdych 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny—61111113P. Berdych—112821
LOct 15 · 17:30M. Novotny—8111081P. Berdych—11112113
WOct 15 · 15:30M. Novotny—1181111113P. Berdych—81181332
WSep 26 · 14:00M. Novotny—12711113P. Berdych—1011561
WSep 12 · 20:30M. Novotny—71111113P. Berdych—118981
LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny—15119652P. Berdych—1371111113
WAug 23 · 03:03M. Novotny—1113113P. Berdych—41140
WAug 23 · 02:00M. Novotny—1111113P. Berdych—3650
LAug 10 · 03:30M. Novotny—9111031P. Berdych—11612113
LAug 9 · 23:30M. Novotny—711111372P. Berdych—1113911113
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.