TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126018
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181513––––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 66 set 3, 15-13 — our read held Martin Stefek at 59.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 21–21 Tomas Regner Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1362 vs Regner 1330
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Regner 0%
Stefek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Regner 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Regner -5
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.91 / Regner 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Regner)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126018
Stefek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 135
Regner1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 89 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it70% 60 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek6wins
AwayRegner4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%3 of 4
AwayRegner50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek5Regner2n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S5Stefek3Regner2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekRegnerS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.0−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime583 / 1224 vs 483 / 98147.6%49.2%583 / 1224 vs 483 / 981Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerStefek 1.91/Regner 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stefek48121114113T. Regner431491281
WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek39312111123T. Regner471110115102
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Stefek177550T. Regner331111113
WAug 28 · 02:30M. Stefek49118118113T. Regner4271181152
WAug 25 · 22:00M. Stefek331111113T. Regner178450
WAug 24 · 16:00M. Stefek43911111113T. Regner4011116482
LAug 23 · 13:30M. Stefek185580T. Regner331111113
LAug 23 · 10:30M. Stefek3911651162T. Regner49811118113
WAug 23 · 09:00M. Stefek3811115113T. Regner25341171
LAug 23 · 06:00M. Stefek46101113842T. Regner511261111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970LSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741LSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar2.0011911203M. Stefek1.738116181LSep 14 · 23:30M. Stefek2.6366111172V. Dolezal1.44111177113LSep 14 · 09:00M. Stefek2.008730A. Svoboda1.731111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113WSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek2.25111111113A. Svoboda1.57413751LSep 14 · 06:00K. Darin1.44911911133M. Stefek2.63117112112WSep 13 · 13:00M. Stefek1.90101111113M. Ulrych1.80123851LSep 13 · 12:00M. Ulrych1.6111127113M. Stefek2.209101181
T. Regner10
LSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 24:30T. Regner2.63411711163V. Dolezal1.44119118142LSep 14 · 23:00T. Regner2.50111110772R. Bartunek1.50561211113LSep 11 · 02:00F. Briza1.73111114123T. Regner2.007516101LSep 11 · 24:30T. Regner1.80121181232O. Vitrovyj1.911481110113LSep 10 · 23:00T. Regner2.5011811452R. Bartunek1.50911111113LSep 10 · 22:00K. Darin1.4011114113T. Regner2.75631191LSep 9 · 16:59T. Regner2.258760J. Steffan1.571111113LSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113WSep 9 · 15:00T. Regner2.131212211113J. Steffan1.56141011692
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