TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125711
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411911––––
Jan Varcl Jnr
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 72.1% is still 72.1%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
72.1%
72.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Jan Varcl Jnr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 72.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 3–5 Jan Varcl Jnr Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Jnr
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1366 vs Jnr 1488
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Jnr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 3.25 / Jnr 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Jnr)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125711
Stefek3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 135
Jnr1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayJnr5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderJnr leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek33.3%1 of 3
AwayJnr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek3Jnr5n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
S2Stefek4Jnr4n = 8split evenly
S3Stefek3Jnr5n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
S4Stefek3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricStefekJnrS − JBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match36.039.5−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime583 / 1226 vs 122 / 24047.6%50.8%583 / 1226 vs 122 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrStefek 3.25/Jnr 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.1%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 25 · 08:58M. Stefek29118551J. Jnr4291111113
LJun 25 · 06:00M. Stefek50126121192J. Jnr551011149113
WMay 20 · 22:00M. Stefek341111123J. Jnr2459100
LApr 1 · 08:00M. Stefek346101171J. Jnr4211128113
LMar 17 · 04:00M. Stefek184860J. Jnr331111113
WMar 17 · 24:00M. Stefek48911511123J. Jnr41115114102
LFeb 17 · 07:30M. Stefek326111051J. Jnr4311912113
WFeb 10 · 17:00M. Stefek4371114113J. Jnr361181251
M. Stefek10
LSep 14 · 09:00M. Stefek2.008730A. Svoboda1.731111113WSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek2.25111111113A. Svoboda1.57413751LSep 14 · 06:00K. Darin1.44911911133M. Stefek2.63117112112WSep 13 · 13:00M. Stefek1.90101111113M. Ulrych1.80123851LSep 13 · 12:00M. Ulrych1.6111127113M. Stefek2.209101181LSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361WSep 13 · 10:30M. Stefek2.50119116113D. Barton1.5041191182LSep 13 · 09:07M. Stefek10.0043111632V. Dolezal1.031111914113LSep 13 · 08:30M. Stefek2.75411118132V. Dolezal1.40115511153LSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek4.50138941D. Horak1.17111111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 14 · 09:30J. Jnr1.90971161K. Darin1.8011115113WSep 14 · 07:30J. Jnr2.101111113K. Darin1.679960WSep 14 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.7311134442J. Jnr2.007111111113LSep 10 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk1.831111113J. Jnr1.839890LSep 10 · 20:00J. Jnr1.6188120Y. Holovatiuk2.201111143LSep 10 · 19:30L. Krok1.611261011113J. Jnr2.20101112892LSep 10 · 18:00J. Jnr2.20681141J. Prokupek1.6111117113WSep 8 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.834980J. Jnr1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:30J. Jnr2.008131081K. Darin1.73111112113LSep 8 · 19:00J. Jnr1.734160Y. Holovatiuk2.001111113
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