TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135634
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Regner
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911118811119
Martin Novak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Martin Novak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Regner at 55.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 3–1 Martin Novak Martin Novak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Regner
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1366 vs Novak 1449
Novak
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Novak 60%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Novak 40%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +2 · Novak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.67 / Novak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Regner)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135634
Regner1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 88 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it70% 60 of 86
Novak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRegner3wins
AwayNovak1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderRegner leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner100%3 of 3
AwayNovakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Novak1n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
S2Regner3Novak1n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
S3Regner3Novak1n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricRegnerNovakR − NBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.031.8+6.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 989 vs 38 / 6449.4%59.4%489 / 989 vs 38 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.67/Novak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 01:30T. Regner50119118113M. Novak4891181192
WAug 17 · 22:30T. Regner331111113M. Novak196940
LJul 14 · 23:00T. Regner361011781M. Novak3712311113
WJun 30 · 22:30T. Regner331111113M. Novak239860
T. Regner10
WSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek2.001178101T. Regner1.7391111123WSep 16 · 23:30R. Hasmanda2.755770T. Regner1.401111113LSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner1.91138941J. Framberk1.80111111113WSep 16 · 17:30T. Nohejl1.7110990T. Regner2.001211113WSep 16 · 16:00T. Regner1.9111118113L. Sulava1.80481191LSep 16 · 15:30T. Nohejl1.831112133T. Regner1.83810110WSep 16 · 14:00T. Regner1.40914116113J. Pleskot2.75111271132LSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 24:30T. Regner2.63411711163V. Dolezal1.44119118142LSep 14 · 23:00T. Regner2.50111110772R. Bartunek1.50561211113
M. Novak10
WSep 17 · 02:30M. Novak1.83411511113R. Hasmanda1.8311911872WSep 17 · 24:00M. Novak1.6191111113J. Framberk2.20116281LSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251LSep 9 · 03:00M. Novak1.679127111R. Hasmanda2.10111011133WSep 9 · 02:00M. Novak1.5717119113V. Kosar2.251561111WSep 9 · 01:00M. Novak2.101111133R. Hasmanda1.6785110LSep 9 · 24:00A. Svoboda1.401111113M. Novak2.757730WSep 8 · 22:30L. Sulava2.0010640M. Novak1.731211113LSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961LSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113
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