TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140633
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111412911––
Vaclav Kosar
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Kosar to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vaclav Kosar at 54.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 7–7 Vaclav Kosar Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kosar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1369 vs Kosar 1426
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Kosar 100%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Kosar 80%
Kosar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +3 · Kosar +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kosar) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.83 / Kosar 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kosar)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140633
Stefek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kosar1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayKosar5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek100%4 of 4
AwayKosar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Kosar6n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S2Stefek8Kosar2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S3Stefek2Kosar8n = 10Kosar took 8 of 10
S4Stefek6Kosar4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S5Stefek2Kosar2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekKosarS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.1−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1234 vs 218 / 42147.7%51.8%589 / 1234 vs 218 / 421Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosarStefek 1.83/Kosar 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek37771491V. Kosar45111112113
LSep 15 · 01:00M. Stefek438116181V. Kosar5111911203
WJul 29 · 19:30M. Stefek42511411113V. Kosar4011711292
WJul 8 · 01:00M. Stefek46111158113V. Kosar4467111192
LJul 3 · 21:00M. Stefek31911741V. Kosar4011711113
WJul 3 · 19:30M. Stefek4412813113V. Kosar4110111191
WJun 30 · 03:30M. Stefek43111110113V. Kosar34581291
LJun 30 · 02:00M. Stefek4671161392V. Kosar491151111113
LMay 18 · 20:00M. Stefek41311611102V. Kosar41112115123
WJan 16 · 24:30M. Stefek4011116123V. Kosar369611101
M. Stefek10
WSep 17 · 21:00L. Sulava1.807118111M. Stefek1.9111211133LSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda2.201211113M. Stefek1.6110450WSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava1.9111991182M. Stefek1.80711116113WSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342WSep 17 · 02:00J. Framberk2.255840M. Stefek1.571111113LSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek2.001178101T. Regner1.7391111123WSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251WSep 16 · 22:00R. Hasmanda2.0094100M. Stefek1.731111123LSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970LSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741
V. Kosar10
LSep 17 · 20:00V. Kosar2.10991191L. Sulava1.6711119113WSep 17 · 18:00V. Kosar1.6111117113R. Hasmanda2.20551191WSep 15 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.558360V. Kosar2.351111113WSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar2.0011911203M. Stefek1.738116181WSep 15 · 24:00R. Bartunek1.365101171V. Kosar3.0011127113LSep 14 · 22:30V. Dolezal1.3311913113V. Kosar3.257111181WSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790
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