TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146905
Played Sep 18Finished
Zbynek Drabek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191161210––––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Drabek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Drabek above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Zbynek Drabek at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Drabek 3–3 Martin Stefek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drabek 1351 vs Stefek 1380
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drabek 80% vs Stefek 40%
Drabek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drabek 80% vs Stefek 60%
Drabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drabek +2 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrabek 2.10 / Stefek 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Drabek)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146905
Drabek2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 15 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back35% 6 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Stefek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 108 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 80 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDrabek3wins
AwayStefek3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrabekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drabek2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S2Drabek2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S3Drabek2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S4Drabek3Stefek0n = 3Drabek took 3 of 3
S5Drabek2Stefek1n = 3Drabek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDrabekStefekD − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.836.8+1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrabekStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 94 vs 588 / 123052.1%47.8%49 / 94 vs 588 / 1230Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekDrabek 2.10/Stefek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Drabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek341111123M. Stefek2596100
WJun 17 · 12:30Z. Drabek541191112113M. Stefek41131121052
LJun 17 · 09:00Z. Drabek49111181182M. Stefek46613115113
LJun 17 · 08:30Z. Drabek214890M. Stefek331111113
LMay 4 · 11:30Z. Drabek208840M. Stefek331111113
WApr 25 · 10:30Z. Drabek495111012113M. Stefek43114121062
Z. Drabek10
WSep 18 · 08:30T. Nohejl1.80611861Z. Drabek1.9111911113WSep 18 · 06:30Z. Zikmunda1.835880Z. Drabek1.831111113WSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113LSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471WSep 5 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.735111011113Z. Zikmunda2.0011612792WSep 5 · 08:00Z. Drabek1.441111113M. Barta2.634870WSep 5 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.0091171482Z. Drabek1.731171112113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101
M. Stefek10
WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stefek2.75111211262T. Nohejl1.4013101110113WSep 17 · 21:00L. Sulava1.807118111M. Stefek1.9111211133LSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda2.201211113M. Stefek1.6110450LSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek1.83771491V. Kosar1.83111112113WSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava1.9111991182M. Stefek1.80711116113WSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342WSep 17 · 02:00J. Framberk2.255840M. Stefek1.571111113LSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek2.001178101T. Regner1.7391111123WSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251
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