TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153762
Played Sep 19Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118611119611
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 60.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 33–26 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 26 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-26 in 59
Berdych
Wrong
gap of 7 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1283 vs Strnad 1394
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 0% vs Strnad 20%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 30% vs Strnad 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -5 · Strnad -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 2.10 / Strnad 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Strnad)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153762
Berdych2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog26% won 19 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Strnad1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 132 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 100 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych2wins
AwayStrnad8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych33.3%2 of 6
AwayStrnad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych6Strnad4n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S2Berdych2Strnad8n = 10Strnad took 8 of 10
S3Berdych3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S4Berdych2Strnad7n = 9Strnad took 7 of 9
S5Berdych2Strnad2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychStrnadB − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.343.6−6.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 433 vs 550 / 112148.5%49.1%210 / 433 vs 550 / 1121Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadBerdych 2.10/Strnad 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.2%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 16:30P. Berdych29117921J. Strnad3741111113
LSep 12 · 21:30P. Berdych2374120J. Strnad361111143
LSep 12 · 18:00P. Berdych271151011J. Strnad4171112113
LSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych371191251J. Strnad4151114113
WSep 11 · 16:30P. Berdych461121111113J. Strnad4691113582
WSep 10 · 20:30P. Berdych531310118113J. Strnad46111241182
LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych34611981J. Strnad4211911113
LApr 12 · 24:00P. Berdych461131111102J. Strnad52111595123
LApr 4 · 24:00P. Berdych31891131J. Strnad4211119113
LMar 7 · 10:30P. Berdych471211311102J. Strnad531071113123
P. Berdych10
LSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921LSep 14 · 15:30P. Berdych2.20611341P. Kulhanek1.6111911113LSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641LSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011LSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113
J. Strnad10
WSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad2.75141111113M. Stefek1.40169551LSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870LSep 18 · 20:30J. Strnad2.007570L. Sulava1.731111113LSep 18 · 19:00J. Strnad3.2561111682T. Regner1.33118711113LSep 18 · 18:00V. Kosar1.44111268113J. Strnad2.63310111182WSep 17 · 21:28J. Strnad1.67111111113M. Barta2.10138751WSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921WSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011WSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113
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