TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115411
Played Sep 12Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11911810121513––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 89 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 59.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 7–11 Miroslav Novotny Pavel Berdych has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1328 vs Novotny 1241
Berdych
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 60% vs Novotny 20%
Berdych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 60% vs Novotny 40%
Berdych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -2 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 2.25 / Novotny 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Novotny)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115411
Berdych2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Novotny1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych50%2 of 4
AwayNovotny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Berdych2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S3Berdych4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Berdych5Novotny3n = 8Berdych took 5 of 8
S5Berdych2Novotny1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychNovotnyB − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.639.3−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 435 vs 155 / 33049.4%47%215 / 435 vs 155 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyBerdych 2.25/Novotny 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 18:30P. Berdych51991111113M. Novotny3711116452
LSep 6 · 01:00P. Berdych23112821M. Novotny3961111113
WOct 15 · 17:30P. Berdych3511112113M. Novotny378111081
LOct 15 · 15:30P. Berdych4381181332M. Novotny521181111113
LSep 26 · 14:00P. Berdych321011561M. Novotny4112711113
LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych36118981M. Novotny4071111113
WSep 6 · 02:00P. Berdych531371111113M. Novotny4615119652
LAug 23 · 03:03P. Berdych1941140M. Novotny351113113
LAug 23 · 02:00P. Berdych143650M. Novotny331111113
WAug 10 · 03:30P. Berdych4011612113M. Novotny339111031
P. Berdych10
LSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011LSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113WSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:30P. Berdych1.4011911113M. Barta2.75611951WSep 11 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.75791111102P. Berdych1.40111146123LSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391
M. Novotny10
LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580
Upcoming Matches
P. Berdych
M. Novotny
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