TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110064
Played Sep 11Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7119111141161012
Pavel Berdych
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 62.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 17–31 Pavel Berdych Jiri Grohsgott has won 17 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Berdych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-31 in 48
Berdych
Correct
gap of 14 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1248 vs Berdych 1310
Berdych
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 20% vs Berdych 60%
Berdych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 50% vs Berdych 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott -4 · Berdych -1
Grohsgott
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Berdych) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 2.75 / Berdych 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Berdych)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110064
Grohsgott2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 144 of 375
Down 0–1, comes back22% 44 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 114
Berdych1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 56 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott3wins
AwayBerdych7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBerdych leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott60%3 of 5
AwayBerdych100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S2Grohsgott5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S3Grohsgott2Berdych8n = 10Berdych took 8 of 10
S4Grohsgott2Berdych4n = 6Berdych took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottBerdychG − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.636.7−5.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime749 / 1532 vs 213 / 43448.9%49.1%749 / 1532 vs 213 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerdychGrohsgott 2.75/Berdych 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Berdych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 21 · 17:30J. Grohsgott—1611571P. Berdych—18811113
LJul 21 · 15:30J. Grohsgott—1690P. Berdych—1111113
LJul 19 · 14:00J. Grohsgott—113631P. Berdych—31111113
WJul 18 · 17:30J. Grohsgott—1111113P. Berdych—9570
LJul 18 · 15:30J. Grohsgott—711691P. Berdych—11911113
LJul 17 · 01:00J. Grohsgott—11860P. Berdych—1311113
LJul 15 · 19:30J. Grohsgott—51190P. Berdych—1113113
WJun 27 · 18:30J. Grohsgott—11911113P. Berdych—711891
LJun 18 · 14:00J. Grohsgott—11115742P. Berdych—841111113
WJun 15 · 21:00J. Grohsgott—13117113P. Berdych—1161191
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650LSep 11 · 12:58P. Kulhanek1.361111133J. Grohsgott3.0034110LSep 11 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4011611113J. Grohsgott2.75511971LSep 11 · 11:00Z. Zikmunda1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.107980LSep 11 · 10:30J. Grohsgott3.0061113652P. Kulhanek1.361161111113WSep 9 · 09:28M. Regner1.309680J. Grohsgott3.401111113WSep 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott2.00941111113L. Forman1.7311117762WSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113LSep 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott3.009760M. Regner1.361111113WSep 8 · 13:30J. Grohsgott1.571111113P. Sudek2.126720
P. Berdych10
WSep 11 · 15:30P. Berdych1.4011911113M. Barta2.75611951LSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110
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