TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110068
Played Sep 11Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115611119117––
Jiri Grohsgott
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 56.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 51–27 Jiri Grohsgott Jiri Grohsgott has won 27 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chalupnicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-27 in 78
Chalupnicek
Correct
gap of 24 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1372 vs Grohsgott 1259
Chalupnicek
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 80% vs Grohsgott 60%
Chalupnicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 70% vs Grohsgott 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +1 · Grohsgott -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 1.40 / Grohsgott 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110068
Chalupnicek1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it81% 39 of 48
Grohsgott2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 144 of 375
Down 0–1, comes back22% 44 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek7wins
AwayGrohsgott3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek75%3 of 4
AwayGrohsgott33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek4Grohsgott6n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S2Chalupnicek5Grohsgott5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupnicek6Grohsgott4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S4Chalupnicek6Grohsgott2n = 8Chalupnicek took 6 of 8
S5Chalupnicek3Grohsgott1n = 4Chalupnicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekGrohsgottC − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.8+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 670 vs 749 / 153149.7%48.9%333 / 670 vs 749 / 1531Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekChalupnicek 1.40/Grohsgott 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—1191211113J. Grohsgott—131110552
WAug 21 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—1211113J. Grohsgott—10870
WAug 20 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek—61111113J. Grohsgott—117951
WAug 14 · 09:03M. Chalupnicek—11311113J. Grohsgott—811881
WAug 14 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek—911811113J. Grohsgott—11911772
LJul 24 · 15:30M. Chalupnicek—12890J. Grohsgott—1411113
LJul 22 · 08:58M. Chalupnicek—11711762J. Grohsgott—511711113
WJul 22 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek—711411113J. Grohsgott—11711722
LJul 21 · 16:30M. Chalupnicek—991171J. Grohsgott—11118113
WJul 18 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek—111112113J. Grohsgott—681491
M. Chalupnicek10
LSep 11 · 13:30Z. Zikmunda1.40471111113M. Chalupnicek2.7511118792WSep 11 · 11:30P. Kulhanek2.63913691M. Chalupnicek1.44111111113LSep 11 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.201011781Z. Zikmunda1.6112811113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.531111133P. Kulhanek2.3847110WSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:09M. Chalupnicek1.3011117123J. Svec3.404411101WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381WSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec2.101012141142M. Chalupnicek1.671210169113
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 11 · 12:58P. Kulhanek1.361111133J. Grohsgott3.0034110LSep 11 · 11:00Z. Zikmunda1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.107980LSep 11 · 10:30J. Grohsgott3.0061113652P. Kulhanek1.361161111113WSep 9 · 09:28M. Regner1.309680J. Grohsgott3.401111113WSep 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott2.00941111113L. Forman1.7311117762WSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113LSep 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott3.009760M. Regner1.361111113WSep 8 · 13:30J. Grohsgott1.571111113P. Sudek2.126720WSep 8 · 12:00J. Grohsgott1.7311611113P. Sudek2.00511451WSep 8 · 11:30J. Svec2.10781151J. Grohsgott1.6711119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Chalupnicek
Nothing scheduled
J. Grohsgott
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