TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115070
Played Sep 11Finished
Zdenek Zikmunda
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411711118117119
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Zikmunda above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zikmunda 2–0 Milan Chalupnicek Milan Chalupnicek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zikmunda beat Chalupnicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zikmunda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zikmunda 1384 vs Chalupnicek 1372
Zikmunda
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zikmunda 80% vs Chalupnicek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zikmunda 70% vs Chalupnicek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zikmunda -1 · Chalupnicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Zikmunda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZikmunda 1.40 / Chalupnicek 2.75
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115070
Zikmunda1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite36% won 4 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Chalupnicek2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 56 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeZikmunda2wins
AwayChalupnicek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderZikmunda leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricZikmundaChalupnicekZ − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.540.5+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZikmundaChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 31 vs 333 / 67041.9%49.7%13 / 31 vs 333 / 670Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZikmundaZikmunda 1.40/Chalupnicek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Zikmunda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zikmunda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 11 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda—12811113M. Chalupnicek—1011781
WSep 5 · 08:30Z. Zikmunda—1171111113M. Chalupnicek—71113682
Z. Zikmunda10
LSep 11 · 12:30Z. Zikmunda1.401112781P. Kulhanek2.7541411113WSep 11 · 11:00Z. Zikmunda1.671111113J. Grohsgott2.107980WSep 11 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.201011781Z. Zikmunda1.6112811113WSep 11 · 09:30M. Stefek1.65124130Z. Zikmunda2.101411153WSep 11 · 08:30L. Sulava2.00111011692Z. Zikmunda1.73812611113LSep 11 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.2511712652M. Stefek1.577111011113WSep 11 · 06:30J. Pleskot1.8013137101Z. Zikmunda1.91151111123LSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113WSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:30M. Barta1.678230Z. Zikmunda2.101111113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 11 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4011611113J. Grohsgott2.75511971WSep 11 · 11:30P. Kulhanek2.63913691M. Chalupnicek1.44111111113LSep 11 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.201011781Z. Zikmunda1.6112811113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.531111133P. Kulhanek2.3847110WSep 9 · 11:30J. Svec2.1091111882M. Chalupnicek1.67119911113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113WSep 7 · 13:09M. Chalupnicek1.3011117123J. Svec3.404411101WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381WSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec2.101012141142M. Chalupnicek1.671210169113
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