TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13113951
Played Sep 12Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1164111181012711
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hruska Sr to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Vaclav Hruska Sr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vaclav Hruska Sr at 55.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 9–6 Vaclav Hruska Sr Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1265 vs Sr 1258
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 20% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 40% vs Sr 60%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Sr +4
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.50 / Sr 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Novotny)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13113951
Novotny1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Sr2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwaySr3wins
Novotny leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny80%4 of 5
AwaySr40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Sr5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny7Sr3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Novotny6Sr4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Novotny4Sr1n = 5Novotny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnySrN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.128.8+5.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnySrBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 336 vs 461 / 99347%46.4%158 / 336 vs 461 / 993Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.50/Sr 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 19:30M. Novotny331111113V. Sr155280
LOct 23 · 14:30M. Novotny2610790V. Sr341211113
WSep 26 · 17:30M. Novotny4181111113V. Sr33117871
WSep 26 · 15:30M. Novotny3911116113V. Sr30481171
WSep 20 · 18:30M. Novotny4291111113V. Sr33119491
LJul 4 · 20:00M. Novotny229760V. Sr331111113
LJun 6 · 23:30M. Novotny31115871V. Sr3961111113
WJun 1 · 01:00M. Novotny331111113V. Sr259790
WMay 9 · 14:30M. Novotny331111113V. Sr238960
WMay 3 · 03:30M. Novotny4181111113V. Sr23114531
M. Novotny10
LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580
V. Sr10
WSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102WSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 23 · 17:29M. Regner1.44971111113V. Sr2.6311119562LAug 23 · 16:30M. Regner1.44811511113V. Sr2.6311511452WAug 23 · 15:30V. Sr2.25111110113M. Syroha1.57341211WAug 23 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.1010680V. Sr1.671211113LAug 22 · 09:30M. Syroha1.44111251113V. Sr2.63810111162
Upcoming Matches
M. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
V. Sr
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