TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115335
Played Sep 12Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111311114118––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hruska Sr to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Hruska Sr at 58.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 78–73 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 73 of their 151 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:04What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strnad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
78-73 in 151
Sr
Correct
gap of 5 in 151, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1292 vs Strnad 1398
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 100% vs Strnad 80%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 70% vs Strnad 50%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +5 · Strnad +2
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.00 / Strnad 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Strnad)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115335
Sr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Strnad1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 133 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 102 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr4wins
AwayStrnad6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr75%3 of 4
AwayStrnad83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Strnad6n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S2Sr7Strnad3n = 10Sr took 7 of 10
S3Sr6Strnad4n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S4Sr2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S5Sr1Strnad4n = 5Strnad took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrStrnadSr − StrnadBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.3−3.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 982 vs 546 / 111846.7%48.8%459 / 982 vs 546 / 1118Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadSr 2.00/Strnad 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.5%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 12:30V. Sr229760J. Strnad331111113
WAug 15 · 20:59V. Sr44114117113J. Strnad4671181192
LAug 15 · 18:30V. Sr3521431152J. Strnad531112118113
LAug 13 · 06:30V. Sr197840J. Strnad331111113
LAug 12 · 02:00V. Sr49121113852J. Strnad551481111113
WAug 2 · 10:30V. Sr331111113J. Strnad204790
WAug 2 · 08:30V. Sr51161113113J. Strnad371841141
LJul 13 · 12:30V. Sr3841211562J. Strnad511110811113
WJul 8 · 07:00V. Sr351311113J. Strnad2411670
LJul 7 · 01:30V. Sr3711115732J. Strnad41621111113
V. Sr10
WSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102WSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 23 · 17:29M. Regner1.44971111113V. Sr2.6311119562LAug 23 · 16:30M. Regner1.44811511113V. Sr2.6311511452WAug 23 · 15:30V. Sr2.25111110113M. Syroha1.57341211
J. Strnad10
WSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960WSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011WSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113LSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650WSep 11 · 14:00M. Barta2.10101111682J. Strnad1.67126911113LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252
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