TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110116
Played Sep 11Finished
Miroslav Barta
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116119611811
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Barta above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 58.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Barta 3–10 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Miroslav Barta has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Strnad
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barta 1253 vs Strnad 1376
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barta 80% vs Strnad 20%
Barta
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barta 40% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Barta +1 · Strnad -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarta 2.10 / Strnad 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Strnad)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110116
Barta2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 68 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Strnad1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 130 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it74% 100 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarta3wins
AwayStrnad7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrnad87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barta2Strnad8n = 10Strnad took 8 of 10
S2Barta5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S3Barta6Strnad4n = 10Barta took 6 of 10
S4Barta2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartaStrnadB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.536.2−5.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartaStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 484 vs 542 / 111346.3%48.7%224 / 484 vs 542 / 1113Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadBarta 2.10/Strnad 1.67
Hit
What we said
57.4%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 12:30M. Barta—6811121J. Strnad—11117143
LAug 3 · 15:00M. Barta—61111942J. Strnad—119811113
WMay 2 · 17:00M. Barta—12612113J. Strnad—10111041
LMay 2 · 14:00M. Barta—6590J. Strnad—1111113
WApr 19 · 12:30M. Barta—71111113J. Strnad—117471
LApr 5 · 12:30M. Barta—5650J. Strnad—1111113
WMar 28 · 10:30M. Barta—1111113J. Strnad—7860
LMar 28 · 07:30M. Barta—311541J. Strnad—11711113
LFeb 22 · 17:30M. Barta—101111862J. Strnad—12941193
LJan 19 · 22:30M. Barta—0620J. Strnad—1111113
M. Barta10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Barta1.75911911113L. Sulava1.9511711952LSep 6 · 12:30M. Barta1.9177111172L. Sulava1.80111165113WSep 6 · 11:00M. Barta2.101111113J. Briska1.674640WSep 6 · 10:00M. Stefek1.446670M. Barta2.631111113WSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113LSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:30M. Barta1.678230Z. Zikmunda2.101111113LSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471LSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:00Z. Drabek1.441111113M. Barta2.634870
J. Strnad10
LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172WSep 9 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.5011951332J. Strnad1.507111111113LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121
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