TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13121908
Played Sep 12Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311113116––––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6
55 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 7–9 Miroslav Novotny Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sr beat Novotny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.00 / Novotny 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sr)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13121908
Sr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 81 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Novotny1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr50%2 of 4
AwayNovotny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Sr4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Sr4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Sr2Novotny3n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrNovotnyS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.334.3−3.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 984 vs 155 / 33346.8%46.6%460 / 984 vs 155 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnySr 2.00/Novotny 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 18:30V. Sr48611812113M. Novotny43114111072
LAug 15 · 19:30V. Sr155280M. Novotny331111113
WOct 23 · 14:30V. Sr341211113M. Novotny2610790
LSep 26 · 17:30V. Sr33117871M. Novotny4181111113
LSep 26 · 15:30V. Sr30481171M. Novotny3911116113
LSep 20 · 18:30V. Sr33119491M. Novotny4291111113
WJul 4 · 20:00V. Sr331111113M. Novotny229760
WJun 6 · 23:30V. Sr3961111113M. Novotny31115871
LJun 1 · 01:00V. Sr259790M. Novotny331111113
LMay 9 · 14:30V. Sr238960M. Novotny331111113
V. Sr10
LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102WSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 23 · 17:29M. Regner1.44971111113V. Sr2.6311119562LAug 23 · 16:30M. Regner1.44811511113V. Sr2.6311511452WAug 23 · 15:30V. Sr2.25111110113M. Syroha1.57341211
M. Novotny10
LSep 12 · 20:00J. Strnad2.751111113M. Novotny1.409960LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821
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