TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115337
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119116––––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 58.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 6–17 Miroslav Novotny Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1369 vs Novotny 1220
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Novotny 20%
Strnad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 50% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -1 · Novotny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.75 / Novotny 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Strnad)+0.9pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115337
Strnad2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 96 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 84
Novotny1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it65% 24 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad1wins
AwayNovotny9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S2Strnad2Novotny8n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S3Strnad4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Strnad2Novotny5n = 7Novotny took 5 of 7
S5Strnad1Novotny2n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadNovotnyS − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.341.4−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1119 vs 155 / 33248.8%46.7%546 / 1119 vs 155 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyStrnad 2.75/Novotny 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.4%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad3527111142M. Novotny44111156113
WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad521111910113M. Novotny4699111252
LSep 6 · 02:00J. Strnad389811101M. Novotny4311119123
LAug 22 · 19:30J. Strnad35971181M. Novotny4011117113
LAug 15 · 20:00J. Strnad217770M. Novotny331111113
LAug 3 · 16:30J. Strnad388111181M. Novotny4211713113
LAug 1 · 24:00J. Strnad47129121132M. Novotny521011146113
LJul 4 · 23:30J. Strnad196670M. Novotny331111113
LJun 7 · 01:30J. Strnad381271181M. Novotny4414118113
LMay 1 · 22:30J. Strnad30111180M. Novotny371313113
J. Strnad10
LSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011WSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113LSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650WSep 11 · 14:00M. Barta2.10101111682J. Strnad1.67126911113LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390
M. Novotny10
LSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00122811113M. Novotny1.73101111762LSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113
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