TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110110
Played Sep 11Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111121311511811
Pavel Berdych
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 22–32 Pavel Berdych Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 22 of their 54 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:25What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Berdych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-32 in 54
Berdych
Correct
gap of 10 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1399 vs Berdych 1328
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Berdych 80%
Berdych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 60% vs Berdych 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +2 · Berdych +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.83 / Berdych 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strnad)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110110
Strnad1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Berdych1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad7wins
AwayBerdych3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad100%5 of 5
AwayBerdych60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S2Strnad6Berdych4n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S3Strnad5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S4Strnad7Berdych3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S5Strnad3Berdych2n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadBerdychS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.241.4+3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 1115 vs 215 / 43648.8%49.3%544 / 1115 vs 215 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.83/Berdych 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad—111241182P. Berdych—1310118113
WSep 5 · 22:00J. Strnad—11911113P. Berdych—611981
WApr 12 · 24:00J. Strnad—111595123P. Berdych—1131111102
WApr 4 · 24:00J. Strnad—11119113P. Berdych—891131
WMar 7 · 10:30J. Strnad—1071113123P. Berdych—1211311102
WMar 7 · 08:30J. Strnad—7111110113P. Berdych—11771232
LFeb 22 · 18:30J. Strnad—491491P. Berdych—111112113
LFeb 22 · 16:00J. Strnad—71571182P. Berdych—1113119113
WFeb 1 · 08:00J. Strnad—11116113P. Berdych—851151
WDec 29 · 04:11J. Strnad—14811113P. Berdych—1211561
J. Strnad10
WSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650WSep 11 · 14:00M. Barta2.10101111682J. Strnad1.67126911113LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172
P. Berdych10
LSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113WSep 11 · 15:30P. Berdych1.4011911113M. Barta2.75611951WSep 11 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.75791111102P. Berdych1.40111146123LSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113
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