TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13116176
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1159111214511––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 33–22 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 22 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Berdych beat Strnad 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strnad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 1.91 / Strnad 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strnad)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13116176
Berdych1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Strnad1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 130 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it74% 100 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayStrnad6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrnad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych6Strnad4n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S2Berdych3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Berdych5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Berdych4Strnad6n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S5Berdych3Strnad3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychStrnadB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.645.4−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 437 vs 544 / 111649.4%48.8%216 / 437 vs 544 / 1116Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadBerdych 1.91/Strnad 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:30P. Berdych—1121111113J. Strnad—91113582
WSep 10 · 20:30P. Berdych—1310118113J. Strnad—111241182
LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych—611981J. Strnad—11911113
LApr 12 · 24:00P. Berdych—1131111102J. Strnad—111595123
LApr 4 · 24:00P. Berdych—891131J. Strnad—11119113
LMar 7 · 10:30P. Berdych—1211311102J. Strnad—1071113123
LMar 7 · 08:30P. Berdych—11771232J. Strnad—7111110113
WFeb 22 · 18:30P. Berdych—111112113J. Strnad—491491
WFeb 22 · 16:00P. Berdych—1113119113J. Strnad—71571182
LFeb 1 · 08:00P. Berdych—851151J. Strnad—11116113
P. Berdych10
WSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:30P. Berdych1.4011911113M. Barta2.75611951WSep 11 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.75791111102P. Berdych1.40111146123LSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:30P. Berdych1.911111113V. Kosar1.809790WSep 10 · 18:30M. Novotny1.4411116452P. Berdych2.63991111113LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113
J. Strnad10
LSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad1.501111113J. Grohsgott2.505650WSep 11 · 14:00M. Barta2.10101111682J. Strnad1.67126911113LSep 10 · 20:59J. Strnad2.7527111142M. Novotny1.40111156113LSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113WSep 10 · 19:00J. Strnad3.251111910113M. Novotny1.3399111252LSep 10 · 18:00V. Kosar1.611111113J. Strnad2.205390LSep 9 · 13:30J. Strnad1.499111181M. Chalupnicek2.2711613113WSep 9 · 12:30J. Strnad1.4471111113J. Svec2.63115781WSep 9 · 11:00J. Strnad1.83111167113P. Kulhanek1.8367111172
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