TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124022
Played Sep 14Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1315115116114––
Pavel Berdych
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hruska Sr to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Vaclav Hruska Sr at 54.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 15–16 Pavel Berdych Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Berdych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1318 vs Berdych 1313
Sr
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 80% vs Berdych 40%
Sr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 70% vs Berdych 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +1 · Berdych -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Berdych) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.25 / Berdych 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Berdych)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124022
Sr2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 65
Berdych1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 57 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it84% 42 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr3wins
AwayBerdych7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBerdych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr50%2 of 4
AwayBerdych83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Berdych6n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S2Sr2Berdych8n = 10Berdych took 8 of 10
S3Sr6Berdych4n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S4Sr2Berdych4n = 6Berdych took 4 of 6
S5Sr2Berdych3n = 5Berdych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrBerdychS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.540.3−5.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 985 vs 217 / 43846.8%49.5%461 / 985 vs 217 / 438Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerdychSr 2.25/Berdych 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Berdych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 20:30V. Sr2274110P. Berdych351111133
LAug 9 · 14:30V. Sr30641371P. Berdych44111111113
LJul 21 · 16:00V. Sr227870P. Berdych331111113
LJul 19 · 17:30V. Sr235990P. Berdych331111113
LJul 19 · 16:00V. Sr3654111152P. Berdych50111189113
LJul 18 · 16:00V. Sr40124111032P. Berdych471011312113
WJun 15 · 20:30V. Sr46671111113P. Berdych4511117792
WMay 16 · 17:00V. Sr491151111113P. Berdych4661171392
WMay 16 · 15:30V. Sr341112113P. Berdych2151060
LApr 28 · 17:29V. Sr4313115682P. Berdych491151111113
V. Sr10
WSep 12 · 20:58V. Sr2.001311113M. Novotny1.7311360LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:30V. Sr2.0081311113J. Strnad1.731111481WSep 12 · 18:30M. Novotny1.50114111072V. Sr2.50611812113WSep 3 · 21:30V. Sr1.731111113J. Grohsgott2.004880WSep 3 · 20:30M. Lubas2.105790V. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Sr1.73119135123J. Grohsgott2.004111111102WSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 23 · 17:29M. Regner1.44971111113V. Sr2.6311119562LAug 23 · 16:30M. Regner1.44811511113V. Sr2.6311511452
P. Berdych10
LSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131LSep 12 · 18:00J. Strnad1.9171112113P. Berdych1.801151011LSep 11 · 17:29P. Berdych1.911191251J. Strnad1.8051114113WSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad1.8391113582P. Berdych1.831121111113WSep 11 · 15:30P. Berdych1.4011911113M. Barta2.75611951WSep 11 · 14:30J. Grohsgott2.75791111102P. Berdych1.40111146123LSep 10 · 21:30P. Berdych1.5531191162V. Kosar2.30118117113WSep 10 · 20:30J. Strnad1.73111241182P. Berdych2.001310118113
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