TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152634
Played Sep 19Finished
Josef Pelikan
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Leos Havrda
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeJosef Pelikan to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Pelikan above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Josef Pelikan at 55.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Josef Pelikan 0–1 Leos Havrda Josef Pelikan has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pelikan 1273 vs Havrda 1257
Pelikan
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelikan 100% vs Havrda 80%
Pelikan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelikan 100% vs Havrda 70%
Pelikan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelikan +10 · Havrda +1
Pelikan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelikan 1.91 / Havrda 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Havrda)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152634
Pelikan1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 27 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Havrda1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 35 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePelikan0wins
AwayHavrda1wins
Havrda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricPelikanHavrdaP − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match14.033.0−19.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelikanHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 299 vs 222 / 49049.8%45.3%149 / 299 vs 222 / 490Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaPelikan 1.91/Havrda 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pelikan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan149140L. Havrda331111113
J. Pelikan10
WSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 16 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.6811911113S. Mazanek2.05911861WSep 16 · 02:30S. Mazanek2.107680J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 16 · 01:00D. Mutl2.105980J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 15 · 23:30J. Pelikan1.22611711113M. Syroha4.0011311772WSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102WSep 11 · 21:29J. Pelikan1.4413511113J. Hyrsl2.631111891WSep 11 · 20:00J. Pelikan1.80127114113V. Stach1.91101161112WSep 11 · 19:30J. Hyrsl2.105570J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 11 · 18:00J. Pelikan1.501111113J. Martinek2.508630
L. Havrda10
WSep 15 · 17:10L. Havrda1.92812611113J. Svec1.78111011962LSep 15 · 16:00V. Stach1.831111113L. Havrda1.839990WSep 15 · 15:00J. Svec1.619118101L. Havrda2.2011711123WSep 15 · 14:30L. Havrda2.0011112113M. Lubas1.73981141WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860WAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113
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